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19.03.202503:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD 匯率概覽 – 3月19日：美聯儲會議將帶來哪些變化？

Exchange Rates 19.03.2025 analysis

週二，歐元/美元貨幣對繼續上漲。儘管上升動能有所減弱，但歐元依然強勁，而美元卻持續下跌。這種情況發生在完全沒有重大宏觀經濟和基本面事件的背景下。Donald Trump 並未引入新關稅，也沒有重要報告或指標發佈。然而，美元仍然持續走弱。

美聯儲會議結果將在今晚公佈。關鍵利率有99%的可能性會保持不變。然而，自從Donald Trump 成為總統以來，市場對美聯儲貨幣政策的預期已經顯著柔和。這並不意味著交易員現在希望在每次會議上降息，但之前預測的2025年兩次降息，如今預期更多。

坦率地說，目前的市場預期與2024年的情況非常相似。當時大多數專家認為美聯儲至少會降息六次。然而，實際上僅有三次降息，這在預期和現實之間存在重大差異。對於2025年，市場最初期望有兩次降息，但隨著通脹上升，預期變得更加強硬。後來，當對通脹和美國經濟放緩的擔憂加劇時，預期變得更加鴿派。然而，僅靠市場預期不足以導致美元下跌。預期可能被用作持續拋售美元的藉口，但它們並不是根本原因。

我們討論的是預期方面的細微變化。最初，市場預測兩次降息，然後一次，現在是三次。這些是相對較小的變動。每個人都明白，考慮到目前的通脹水平，美聯儲不太可能每兩次會議就降息。然而，美國經濟放緩甚至衰退的威脅，可能迫使美聯儲採取比以往更加鴿派的立場。這將成為市場繼續拋售已經幾乎天天下跌的美元的新理由。

因此，今天市場將密切分析 Jerome Powell 的言論。任何關於經濟增長的擔憂或伴隨聲明的變化都將被仔細審查。如果有不合市場心意的地方，美元將繼續下跌。

從技術角度看，四小時時間框架上並未發生任何變化。歐元仍處於上升趨勢中，這與歐洲經濟的實際狀況完全脫節。市場繼續對「Trump 因素」做出反應，進一步將美元推向下行。難以預測這一趨勢會持續多久。然而，交易員必須明白，這種情況並不表示美元從根本上疲弱或美國經濟即將衰退。這僅僅反映了「Trump 因素」，掩蓋了所有其他因素。

Exchange Rates 19.03.2025 analysis

截至3月19日的過去五個交易日，歐元/美元貨幣對的平均波動率為68個點，被歸類為“中等”。我們預計該貨幣對將在周三於1.0868和1.1004之間波動。長期回歸通道已經轉向上行，但在更高時間框架上仍然存在長期下降趨勢。CCI指標已進入超賣區，預示著一波新的向上修正浪潮，其程度幾乎稱不上修正。

最近的支撐位：

S1 – 1.0864

S2 – 1.0742

S3 – 1.0620

最近的阻力位：

R1 – 1.0986

交易建議：

歐元/美元貨幣對已經走出其橫盤通道並持續上漲。近月來，我們一直表明預期中期內歐元將走低，截至目前，這一看法並未改變。除了唐納德·特朗普，美元在中期內仍沒有基本面原因下跌。短倉仍然更具吸引力，目標為1.0315和1.0254。然而，預測這種看似不合邏輯的增長何時結束極其困難。如果僅基於技術分析進行交易，可以考慮在價格高於移動均線時進行多倉，目標為1.0986和1.1004。

插圖說明：

線性回歸通道有助於確定當前趨勢。如果兩個通道對齊，則表示趨勢強勁。

移動平均線（設定: 20,0，平滑）定義短期趨勢並指導交易方向。

穆雷水平作為運動和修正的目標水平。

波動水平（紅線）根據當前波動率讀數，代表該貨幣對未來24小時可能的價格範圍。

CCI指標：若進入超賣區（低於-250）或超買區（高於+250），它表示即將發生相反方向的趨勢反轉。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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