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19.03.202519:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD:3月19日美國時段的交易計劃(晨間交易回顧)

在我今早的預測中,我強調了1.2980這個水平是進行市場進入決策的關鍵區域。讓我們來分析一下5分鐘的圖表,看看發生了什麼情況。1.2980的突破和回測提供了一個很好的短期入市點,但該對照並未產生顯著的下行動向。技術前景已經在當天下半部分時間被修改過。

Exchange Rates 19.03.2025 analysis

對於在GBP/USD上開設長倉的策略:

在美聯儲(Federal Reserve)的重要公告前,英鎊在上半日有所走弱,但至今,這只是小範圍的修正。美國聯邦市場委員會(FOMC)的利率決定和經濟展望將是關鍵事件,但最關鍵的因素是聯儲主席Jerome Powell在其新聞發布會上的發言。

如果市場對於Powell的聲明反應看跌的話,那只有在1.2958附近假突破的情況下才有開設長倉的良好條件,目標是恢復到1.3006,即週高點。上破並測試這一點之後,將確認購買的機會,可能將該對換匯價格推至1.3035,加強看漲趨勢。最終的目標是1.3068,我計劃在這裡獲取利潤。

如果GBP/USD下跌並在1.2958未顯示買盤活動,則利空壓力將顯著增加,影響其看漲前景。在這種情況下,1.2912附近的假突破會是開設長倉的適當條件。我會考慮在從1.2876直接反彈時買入,目標是30-35點的當日回調。

對於在GBP/USD上開設短倉的策略:

英鎊在上半日的下跌更多的是预匯後的修正,而非活躍的賣壓結果。1.3006的主要阻力位仍是美國交易時段期間的主要關注點。在這一點的假突破將為賣出GBP/USD提供機會,目標價格為1.2958。

下破並在此範圍內重新測試將觸發止損爆仓,通往1.2912的道路將開放,這可能代表了一次顯著的回調。最終的目標是1.2876,我計劃在這裡接取利潤。測試這個點可能阻止看漲動能。

如果在FOMC決定後英鎊需求依然強勢,且看跌市場未能捍衛1.3006,那就應該等待匯價測試1.3035之後再賣出。只有在這個點的假突破上,我才會進行做空。如果在那裡沒有下行動態,我會在1.3068附近尋找做空機會,目標獲得30-35點的當日回調。

Exchange Rates 19.03.2025 analysis

交易者承諾(COT)報告:

3月11日的COT報告顯示長短兩種職位都有所上升,但是長職位的增加顯著更多,進一步強化了對GBP/USD的看漲情緒。英國經濟前景的積極以及英格蘭銀行對於降息的謹慎態度支援了英鎊的上升趨勢。

即將來臨的美聯儲會議可能會進一步削弱美元,這就意味著英鎊買家依然沒有太多的擔憂。然而,在測試新的本地高點之前,途中可能會有修正。

COT報告顯示,長期非商業職位增加了12,920個,達到了94,786個,同時短期非商業職位僅增加了2,301個,達到了65,593個。因此,長短職位之間的差距擴大了10,925個。

Exchange Rates 19.03.2025 analysis

指標信號:

移動平均線:交易正在30天和50天的移動平均線附近進行,表示市場不確定性。

布林帶:如果該對價格下跌,接近1.2958的指標下界將作為支援。

指標說明:

  • 移動平均線 (平滑波動與雜訊以識別趨勢):
    • 50期簡單移動平均線 – 圖表上的黃色
    • 30期簡單移動平均線 – 圖表上的綠色
  • MACD指標 (移動平均線收斂/擴散):
    • 快速指數移動平均線(12),慢速指數移動平均線(26),簡單移動平均線(9)
  • 布林帶 (基於波動率的價格帶):
    • 20期設定
  • 非商業交易者:像是個人交易者、對沖基金,以及大型機構用期貨進行投機的市場參與者。
  • 長期非商業性位置:投機交易者持有的總開放長位置。
  • 短期非商業性位置:投機交易者持有的總開放短位置。
  • 淨非商業性位置:投機交易者的短期與長期位置之間的差。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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