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19.03.202519:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY:3月19日(美國交易時段)初學者交易簡易建議

日本日元交易和交易建議回顧

149.59水平的測試 coincided with MACD指標剛剛從零標記向下移動,確認了一個有效的賣出美元的進場點。因此,該貨幣對下跌了30個點。

日本央行決定保持利率不變後,日元走弱。根據日本央行行長的聲明,這一決定是基於國內經濟信號。然而,日本進一步加息的可能性依然存在。上田在新聞發布會上表示,“預計工資和物價正在上升,但鑒於美國政策和外部貿易條件的不確定性上升,難以評估我們距離實現目標的距離。”

今日美聯儲聯邦公開市場委員會對利率和經濟預測的決定將是一個關鍵時刻。然而,真正的焦點將在於美聯儲主席杰罗姆·鮑威爾在新聞發佈會上將會說什麼。特別關注有關可能降息的任何信號。如果鮑威爾表示美聯儲準備放鬆貨幣政策,這可能會引發日元兌美元的漲勢,導致美元/日元下跌。

對於我的日内交易策略,我將專注於場景#1和場景#2。

Exchange Rates 19.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情況#1:今天,我計劃在價格達到150.15時(圖表上的綠線)買入美元/日元,目標是上漲至151.10(較粗的綠線)。在151.10時,我將退出我的長倉位,並在相反方向開立空倉位,預期會有30-35點的下修。可能的話,這將在多頭修正階段中持續上升。重要注意事項!在買入之前,請確保MACD指標處於零以上且剛剛開始上升。

情況#2:如果149.63處進行兩次連續測試,且MACD指標在超賣區,我也計劃買入美元/日元。這將限制匯對的下行潛力並引發市場翻轉向上。在這種情況下,我預期價格會上升至相反的150.15和151.10水平。

賣出信號

情況#1:我計劃在美元/日元跌破149.63(圖表上的紅線)後賣出,這應會引發快速下跌。賣方的關鍵目標將是148.70,我將在該處退出空倉位並立刻在相反方向買入,預期有20-25點的反彈。賣壓可能隨時重新出現。重要注意事項!在賣出之前,請確保MACD指標處於零以下且剛剛開始下降。

情況#2:如果150.15處進行兩次連續測試,且MACD指標在超買區,我也計劃賣出美元/日元。這將限制匯對的上行潛力並導致市場翻轉向下。在這種情況下,我預期價格會下降至相反的149.63和148.70水平。

Exchange Rates 19.03.2025 analysis

圖表說明

  • 細綠線 – 買入工具的進場價位
  • 粗綠線 – 建議的獲利了結水平或手動獲利區域,因為超過此水平的進一步增長不太可能
  • 細紅線 – 賣出工具的進場價位
  • 粗紅線 – 建議的獲利了結水平或手動獲利區域,因為超過此水平的進一步下跌不太可能
  • MACD 指標 – 在進場交易之前,重要的是要考慮超買和超賣區域

重要注意事項

外匯市場的新手交易者在做出入市決策時應謹慎。在重大經濟報告發布之前,最好保持觀望,以避免價格的劇烈波動。如果選擇在新聞發布期間進行交易,記得一定要設置止損單以降低風險。沒有止損保護的交易可能會導致資本快速流失,特別是忽視資金管理並使用大倉位的情況下。

請記住:成功的交易需要一個清晰且有結構的交易計劃,類似於上述的計劃。根據實時價格波動作出的即興交易決策對於日內交易者來說是一種失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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