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20.03.202503:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD 匯率概況 – 3月20日：英國央行投票可能冷卻看漲情緒

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

考慮到晚間波動，週三英鎊兌美元貨幣對的交易非常平穩。提醒一下，我們尚未分析聯邦儲備會議的結果，因為時間過於短暫。市場尚未穩定或完全消化資訊——這需要時間。考慮到公告和鮑威爾演講之前的價格走勢，它們與前幾天沒有太大區別。波動性仍然很低，儘管除了Donald Trump的保護主義政策之外沒有其他基本面支持，但英鎊仍保持其上升勢頭。

即使美元今日呈現顯著增長，這會從根本上改變什麼嗎？市場會突然停止對美國關稅的反應，導致美國走向衰退嗎？

市場忽視了相對強勁的美國經濟、良好的宏觀經濟數據和聯邦儲備政策。在2025年，聯邦儲備比2024年底市場預期的更為鷹派，但這在最近幾週和幾個月並未產生任何影響。市場正在抗議Donald Trump的政策，結果是儘管美元長期有兩大上升趨勢，綠背仍在奮力掙扎。

在聯邦儲備之後，英格蘭銀行今天將召開會議。關鍵利率可能保持不變，但最重要的因素將是九位貨幣政策委員會成員中有多少人投票贊成降息。專家預測將有兩名成員投票支持降息，但如果人數達到三名或更多，這可能會停止英鎊的不斷上漲——儘管不一定會結束它。

正如所提到，目前聯邦儲備的貨幣政策對市場意義不大，而英格蘭銀行的政策更不具影響。即使沒有潛在的美國關稅，英國經濟已經處於衰退邊緣。即使這些關稅被避免，英格蘭銀行的首要任務仍然是控制通脹，通脹已經顯著上升。因此，儘管歐洲央行在降息以刺激經濟，英格蘭銀行正在非常緩慢地降息以對抗通脹。這間接支持了英鎊，英鎊仍在積極增值。

市場現在擁有足夠資訊來了解Donald Trump關稅的影響，以便做出明智的交易決策。因此，無論聯邦儲備和英格蘭銀行會議的結果如何，美元可能會出現一些增長。然而，只有在市場參與者停止單純依賴“Trump因素”時，才會發生重大變化。無法準確預測這將在何時發生，但就目前而言，日線圖上下降趨勢仍將持續。除了Trump的影響，沒有實質性理由支持英鎊增強。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

過去五個交易日內，GBP/USD 貨幣對的平均波動率為 61 點，這對該貨幣對來說被認為是「中等偏低」。我們預計 3 月 20 日星期四，該貨幣對將在 1.2909 至 1.3031 的範圍內波動。雖然長期回歸通道向上，但日線時間框架的下降趨勢仍然保持不變。CCI 指標最近並未進入超買或超賣區域。

最近的支撐位：

S1 – 1.2939

S2 – 1.2817

S3 – 1.2695

最近的阻力位：

R1 – 1.3062

R2 – 1.3184

R3 – 1.3306

交易建議：

GBP/USD 貨幣對仍處於中期下行趨勢，但4小時時間框架內繼續出現強勁反彈。我們仍然不考慮進行多頭倉位。我們認為目前的上漲是一次修正，但現在卻演變成不合邏輯的、恐慌驅動的反彈。然而，在純技術分析的基礎上，移動平均線上方的多頭有效，目標位為 1.3031 和 1.3062。空頭倉位仍具吸引力，目標位為 1.2207 和 1.2146，原因是日線時間框架的向上修正遲早會結束。英鎊看起來極度超買且不合理地昂貴，但 Donald Trump 繼續將美元推入深淵。「Trump 驅動的美元崩潰」會持續多久？這仍難以預測。

圖示說明：

線性迴歸通道幫助確定當前的趨勢。如果兩個通道對齊，則表明趨勢強勁。

移動平均線（設定：20,0，平滑）定義短期趨勢並指導交易方向。

Murrey Levels 作為移動和修正的目標位。

波動率水準（紅線）根據當前的波動性讀數顯示該貨幣對未來 24 小時內可能的價格範圍。

CCI 指標：若進入超賣區域（低於 -250）或超買區域（高於 +250），則預示著趨勢將反向逆轉。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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