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20.03.202512:19 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美國市場上揚，因聯邦儲備委員會保持利率不變

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

S&P500

3月20日概況

由於美聯儲維持利率不變，美國市場反彈。

週三美國主要指數：道瓊工業指數：+0.9%，納斯達克：+1.4%，S&P 500：+1.1%（S&P 500：5,675，交易範圍：5,500–6,000）。

本週中期，美國股市上漲。交易剛開始就充滿了樂觀情緒，隨著FOMC在東部時間下午2:00的決定和隨後美聯儲主席Jerome Powell的新聞發佈會，買盤興趣進一步增加。

由於聯邦公開市場委員會一致決定維持利率不變，將目標範圍維持在4.25%–4.50%，主要指數於接近會議高點收盤。

美聯儲理事Christopher Waller對於這一決定表示不同意——不是對於利率決定本身，而是對於縮表進程的速度。他的提議是維持目前的美聯儲證券滾動速度，但被拒絕，委員會決定自4月1日起，將美財證券的每月銷售量從250億美元減少至50億美元，而抵押貸款支持證券的上限保持在350億美元。

該委員會的指示也承認經濟的不確定性在增強，但同時重申美聯儲對其雙重使命的兩個方面保持警覺。

最新的經濟預測概覽（SEP）使前景更加複雜。

美聯儲將2025年的GDP增長預測從2.1%下調至1.7%。同時，PCE通脹預測從2.5%上調至2.7%（核心PCE從2.5%增至2.8%）。儘管如此，聯邦基金利率的中位數預測仍為3.9%，意味著年內預計將減息兩次。

較弱的增長預測伴隨著持續的通脹預測，表明美聯儲更加關注頑固的通脹，而非增長放緩。

在新聞發布會上，美聯儲主席Jerome Powell再次強調，無需急於調整美聯儲的政策立場。他警告說，很難自信地說明有多少通脹是由關稅引起的，與其他因素相比。

Powell建議，基線情景假設關稅引起的通脹壓力將是短暫的，並且最後一次關稅引發的價格上漲也是短暫的。

大盤股引領了反彈，從昨日的下跌中回升。Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) 收高1.4%。

債券收益率的急劇下降也支撐了股市。10年期美債收益率下跌3個基點至4.26%。2年期美債收益率下滑6個基點至3.98%。

年初至今的表現：

道瓊斯工業平均指數：-1.4%，S&P 500：-3.5%，S&P Midcap 400：-4.4%，羅素2000：-6.6%，納斯達克綜合指數：-8.1%

經濟數據概覽：

每週MBA房屋貸款申請：-6.2%（前值：+11.2%）

EIA原油庫存：+175萬桶（前值：+145萬桶）

展望週四，市場參與者將獲得以下數據：

東部時間8:30 AM：

  • 初請失業金人數（預期：220K 前值：220K）
  • 續請失業金人數（前值：187萬）
  • Q4經常帳戶餘額（預期： -334.0B美元 前值：-131.4B美元）
  • 3月費城聯儲指數（預期：10.0 前值：18.1）
  • 東部時間10:00 AM：
    • 2月份現有房屋銷售（預期：395萬 前值：408萬）
    • 2月份領先指標（預期：-0.2% 前值：-0.3%）
  • 東部時間10:30 AM：
    • 每週天然氣庫存（前值：-62億立方英尺）

能源市場：布倫特原油：71.10 美元 —— 在美國市場情緒改善後，油價回升至71美元以上。

結論：美國市場表明其有意結束調整並開始新一輪反彈。然而，尚存疑慮，即S&P 500指數能否突破6,000的強阻力位——但達到這一點的機率仍然很高。從支持位至少持有多頭倉位，直至達到此目標才是合理的。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jozef Kovach,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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