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外汇市场分析
Fundamental analysis

20.03.202508:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 3月20日應注意什麼？初學者的基本事件分析

宏觀經濟報告分析：

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

本週四有若干宏觀經濟事件即將發生，主要集中在英國。關鍵報告將包括失業率、失業人數的變動以及平均工資。我們預計這些數據不會對市場產生強烈反應，因為僅僅幾小時後，英國央行的會議結果和安德魯·貝利的講話將會公佈。儘管如此，今天的波動性可能會相當高，特別是對英鎊而言。今天歐盟方面沒有重大報告，而美國僅發佈一些較小的報告，可能會被英國的事件所掩蓋。

基本事件分析：

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

在週四的基本事件中，英國央行會議格外引人注目。關鍵利率變動的可能性不大，但Bailey在記者會上可能會分享一些有趣的見解。值得注意的是，英國的通脹正在像美國一樣上升，但由於經濟增長的停滯，英國面臨更為嚴峻的挑戰。因此，Bailey可能表達繼續放寬貨幣政策以刺激經濟的意願。然而，這還不確定，因為例如聯邦儲備系統當前專注於應對高通脹。

總體結論：

在本週的第四個交易日，這兩個貨幣對均可能波動，因為當前的市場波動主要由情緒驅動，尤其是由Donald Trump影響的情緒。最近的一次聯邦儲備會議並未引發市場的重大反應；儘管美元略有走弱，但在會議前幾天就已開始下跌。即將到來的英國央行會議預計將對市場產生影響，但歐元和英鎊可能會獨立於此事件而繼續上升。若報價持續下跌並跌破兩個上升通道，則可能表示期待已久的向下修正。

交易系統的關鍵規則：

  1. 信號強度：信號形成的時間越短（反彈或突破），信號越強。
  2. 虛假信號：如果某一水平附近的兩次或更多次交易產生了虛假信號，則應忽略該水平的後續信號。
  3. 盤整市場：在盤整情況下，貨幣對可能會產生很多虛假信號或根本沒有信號。第一個盤整跡象出現時最好停止交易。
  4. 交易時段：在歐洲交易時段開始到美國交易時段中期之間開盤交易，然後手動關閉所有交易。
  5. MACD信號：在小時圖上，僅在波動性良好且趨勢明確（由趨勢線或趨勢通道證實）期間交易MACD信號。
  6. 接近水平：如果兩個水平非常接近（相隔5-20點），則將它們視為支撐或阻力區。
  7. 止損：當價格向期望方向移動15-20點後，將止損設置為保本位。

關鍵圖表元素：

支撐和阻力水平：這些是開倉或平倉的目標水平，也可以作為設置獲利訂單的點。

紅線：通道或趨勢線，指示當前趨勢和交易的優選方向。

MACD指標（14,22,3）：可作為交易信號輔助來源的直方圖和信號線。

重要的演講和報告經常出現在新聞日曆中，可能顯著影響貨幣對的走勢。因此，在發布這些資料時，建議謹慎交易或考慮退出市場，以避免可能的價格急劇反轉，違反原有趨勢。

外匯市場的新手應明白，並非每筆交易都會盈利。制定清晰的交易策略和執行有效的資金管理對於在交易中取得長期成功至關重要。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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