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20.03.202509:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元:3月20日初學者交易者的簡單交易技巧。昨日外匯交易回顧

歐元交易分析與交易技巧

在 MACD 指標已顯著高於零點時,價格在 1.0911 的測試限制了該貨幣對的上升潛力。出於這個原因,我沒有買入歐元。第二次在 1.0911 的測試中,MACD 處在超買區域,導致執行了賣出的第二種情境,結果價格下跌超過 30 點。

在對美國經濟放緩的擔憂不斷增長及持續高通脹的情況下,美聯儲官員昨日決定維持關鍵利率不變。然而,此決定未能支撐美國美元,因為在當前情形下,高利率似乎加劇了美元的問題及經濟困難,而非解決它們。聯邦公開市場委員會確認關鍵利率目標範圍將連續第二次會議維持在 4.25% - 4.5%。此決定突顯了中央銀行在遏制通貨膨脹與避免進一步經濟放緩之間的複雜挑戰。

儘管如此,歐元仍有進一步增長的潛力。然而,此情境將依賴於來自德國生產者價格指數的正面數據以及歐洲央行總裁 Christine Lagarde 的鷹派言論。投資者密切分析德國的經濟指標,因其為歐元區經濟健康的重要晴雨表。Lagarde 的言論也將至關重要。如果她暗示未來利率將保持不變,歐元可能繼續上升,否則,歐元則有面臨下行調整的風險。

在日內策略中,我將主要依賴於情境一和情境二。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境一:今天,我計劃在價格達到約1.0913時買入歐元,目標為1.0952。在1.0952時,我計劃退出市場並在相反方向賣出歐元,預期從進場點有30-35個基點的變動。隨著歐元區強勁數據的公佈,預計歐元在今天上半日的增長將延續上升趨勢。重要!在買入之前,確保MACD指標在零線以上並開始上升。

情境二:如果在MACD指標處於超賣區時,有兩次連續的1.0887測試,我也計劃買入歐元。這將限制該貨幣對的下行潛力,並導致市場反轉上升。預期會升至相反的1.0913和1.0952水平。

賣出信號

情境一:我計劃在歐元達到1.0887時進行賣出,目標為1.0850。在這個水平,我將退出市場並在相反方向買入,預期在相反方向將有20-25個基點的變動。如果拉加德採用溫和的態度,該貨幣對的壓力可能會在今天回升。重要!在賣出之前,確保MACD指標在零線以下並開始下降。

情境二:如果在MACD指標處於超買區時,有兩次連續的1.0913測試,我也計劃賣出歐元。這將限制該貨幣對的上行潛力,並引發市場反轉下行。預期會跌至1.0887和1.0850水平。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

圖表內容:

  • 細綠線表示可以買入交易工具的入市價格。
  • 粗綠線顯示預期價格水準,在此可以設置止盈訂單,或手動鎖定利潤,因為超過此水準的進一步價格上漲不太可能發生。
  • 細紅線表示可以賣出交易工具的入市價格。
  • 粗紅線顯示預期價格水準,在此可以設置止盈訂單,或手動鎖定利潤,因為低於此水準的進一步價格下跌不太可能發生。
  • 應使用MACD指標在入市時評估超買和超賣區域。

重要提示:

  • 初學者外匯交易者在做出入市決策時應極端謹慎。建議在重要基本面報告發布之前退出市場,以避免暴露於劇烈的價格波動中。如果選擇在新聞發布期間交易,務必使用止損訂單以降低潛在的損失。無止損訂單的交易可能會迅速消耗您的全部存款,尤其是在忽視資金管理原則並進行高額交易時。
  • 請記住,成功的交易需要周詳的交易計劃,類似於上面所述的策略。根據當前市場情況做出即興的交易決策對於日內交易者而言是一種失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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