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外汇市场分析

20.03.202509:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD：3月20日對初學交易者的簡單交易提示。昨日外匯交易回顧

英鎊交易分析及交易提示

當 MACD 指標顯著超過零線時，1.2978 的價格測試發生，限制了該貨幣對的上行潛力。因此，我沒有買入英鎊。第二次測試 1.2978 時，MACD 處於超買區，導致執行了賣出方案 No. 2，結果價格下跌超過 30 點。

美聯儲決定保持利率不變，並下調經濟預測，對美元施加了重大壓力。美元匯率在外匯市場上疲軟，英鎊從日內低點顯著反彈。美聯儲會議後，2025 年底的通脹預測上調至 2.8%，顯著高於去年 12 月預測的 2.5%。同時，美聯儲將 2025 年底的經濟增長預測下調至 1.7%，低於此前預測的 2.1%。這些經濟展望的調整引發了投資者的擔憂，並觸發了資本重新分配，對美元產生了負面影響。

今天，隨著交易員期待英國央行的關鍵利率決策，市場波動性可能進一步增加。市場將高度關注央行如何評估當前經濟形勢和通脹前景。英國央行行長安德魯‧貝利的講話將受到特別關注，因為他的評論可能就未來貨幣政策的方向提供有價值的見解。交易者將尋找有關英國央行將如何堅決應對通脹及未來行動的影響要素的信號。

此外，包括失業率和平均收入變化數據在內的英國關鍵勞動力市場報告預計今天將發布。這些指標將提供英國經濟健康狀況的見解，並可能影響對英國央行未來政策的預期。

對於當日策略，我將主要依賴於方案 #1 和 #2。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境1：今天，我計劃在1.3010左右買入英鎊，目標上升至1.3068。在1.3068時，我打算退出買入交易並在相反方向建立賣出頭寸，預期從該水平出現30-35點的波動。可以預期英鎊的增長將延續上升趨勢。重要！在買入之前，請確保MACD指標高於零點並開始上升。

情境2：如果1.2976經過兩次連續測試而MACD指標在超賣區，我也計劃買入英鎊。這將限制該貨幣對的下行潛力，並導致市場向上反轉。預期可上升至1.3010與1.3068的相反水平。

賣出信號

情境1：在1.2976被突破後，我計劃今天賣出英鎊，此舉應會導致該貨幣對的快速下跌。賣方的關鍵目標是1.2924，在那裡我打算退出賣出交易並立刻在相反方向建立買入頭寸，預期從該水平出現20-25點的波動。最好是在較高水平賣出英鎊。重要！在賣出之前，請確保MACD指標低於零點並開始下降。

情境2：如果1.3010經過兩次連續測試而MACD指標在超買區，我也計劃賣出英鎊。這將限制該貨幣對的上行潛力並觸發市場向下反轉。預期可下降至1.2976與1.2924的相反水平。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

圖表上的內容：

  • 細綠線表示可以購買該交易工具的入市價格。
  • 粗綠線指出預期的價格水平，可以在該水平設置止盈單或手動鎖定利潤，因為價格進一步超過這一水平的可能性不大。
  • 細紅線表示可以賣出該交易工具的入市價格。
  • 粗紅線指出預期的價格水平，可以在該水平設置止盈單或手動鎖定利潤，因為價格進一步低於這一水平的可能性不大。
  • 當進入市場時，應使用MACD指標來評估超買和超賣區域。

重要提示：

  • 初學者外匯交易者在做出市場進入決定時應格外謹慎。在重要基本報告發布之前，建議避免進入市場，以避免受到劇烈價格波動的影響。如果選擇在新聞發布期間交易，應始終使用止損單以將潛在損失降至最低。沒有使用止損單進行交易可能會很快耗盡您的整個存款，尤其是當您忽視資金管理原則且以高額進行交易時。
  • 記住，成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃，類似於上述列舉的方案。基於當前市場情況的衝動交易決策對於日內交易者而言是一個失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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