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外汇市场分析

20.03.202509:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY：3月20日給初學者交易者的簡單交易提示。昨天外匯交易回顧

日圓交易的分析與交易建議

當MACD指標剛剛從零點開始下行時，於149.63的價格測試確認了一個賣出美元的有效進場點。因此，該貨幣對下跌至148.70的目標水平，獲得了約90個點的利潤。

聯邦公開市場委員會維持關鍵利率在4.25%-4.5%區間不變。然而，對該貨幣對的壓力並非來自於利率決議本身，而是來自於經濟預測的修訂。美聯儲將2025年底的核心通貨膨脹預測提高至2.8%，並將經濟增長預期下調至截至年底的1.7%。這足以使美元再次面臨壓力。

美元/日圓的急劇下跌表明，近期受日本銀行對利率保持觀望態度支持的漲勢正在逐漸結束。這也表明，對日圓的中期需求依然強勁。

對於日內策略，我將主要依賴場景#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境一：我計劃今天在148.53左右的入市點買入USD/JPY，目標是上升至149.29。在149.29時，我打算在買入交易中退出，並在相反方向開立賣出頭寸，預期從該水準有30-35點的波動。最好在USD/JPY進行調整和重大回撤時再重回買入。重要！在買入之前，請確保MACD指標處於零點之上並開始上升。

情境二：如果在MACD指標處於超賣區時出現兩次連續測試148.15，我也計劃買入USD/JPY。這將限制該貨幣對的下行潛力並導致市場逆轉向上。可以預期上升至148.53和149.29的反方向水準。

賣出信號

情境一：我計劃僅在突破148.15後賣出USD/JPY，這應該會導致該貨幣對的快速下跌。賣方的主要目標將是147.30，我打算在此位退出賣出交易，並立即在相反方向開立買入頭寸，預期從該水準有20-25點的波動。施壓可能隨時回來。重要！銷售前，請確保MACD指標低於零點並開始下降。

情境二：如果在MACD指標處於超買區時出現兩次連續測試148.53，我也計劃賣出USD/JPY。這將限制該貨幣對的上行潛力並引發市場逆轉向下。可以預期下跌至148.15和147.30的反方向水準。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

圖表內容：

  • 細綠線代表可買入交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗綠線表示預期價格水平，可以在此設置獲利了結單，或手動鎖定盈利，因為價格進一步高於此水準的可能性不大。
  • 細紅線代表可賣出交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗紅線表示預期價格水平，可以在此設置獲利了結單，或手動鎖定盈利，因為價格進一步低於此水準的可能性不大。
  • 在進入市場時應使用MACD指標評估超買和超賣區域。

重要提示：

  • 初學者外匯交易者在做出市場進場決策時應格外謹慎。建議在重要基本面報告發布之前保持觀望，以避免因價格劇烈波動而承擔風險。如果選擇在新聞發布時進行交易，應始終使用止損單來降低潛在損失。未設置止損單的交易可能迅速抹去您的全部資金，特別是如果忽略資金管理原則並進行大額交易的話。
  • 請記住，成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計畫，就像上面描述的一樣。基於當前市場狀況的衝動交易決策對於日內交易者來說是一種失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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