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20.03.202511:41 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元。3月20日。空頭再次未能重新掌控局勢

週三，歐元/美元貨幣對第三次從1.0944水平反彈，轉而支持美元，下跌至200.0%斐波那契水平1.0857。若從該水平再次反彈，將再次有利於歐元並帶動再次向1.0944增長。若穩固站於1.0857下方，將增加繼續下跌至1.0781–1.0797支撐區域的可能性，表明看跌趨勢的開始。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

小時圖中的波浪結構已經發生變化。最近的下跌波段未能突破前低，而最新的上升波段已超過前高，但僅數點而已。這表明牛市趨勢仍在，但逆轉可能即將來臨，因為多頭似乎正在失去動力。Donald Trump的關稅政策已對美元施壓數周，但即使多頭現在也需要喘息之機。

週三的基本面背景相當有趣。我不會詳細討論當天的每一份報告，因為主要事件發生在晚上。FOMC維持利率不變，委員會成員確認了2025年將減息兩次的計劃。然而，若干FOMC成員變得更加鷹派，目前預計今年只會減息一次。我認為這代表著聯儲局情緒的鷹派轉變，但美元並未作出相應反應。Jerome Powell在新聞發布會上表示，今年的通脹可能高於預期，而Trump的關稅增加了市場和經濟的不確定性。聯儲局主席並未對貿易政策如何影響增長、通脹或GDP進行推測，但他重申美國經濟仍然強勁，並且聯儲局全力致力於將通脹恢復至2%。聯儲局會議的結果略為鷹派超出預期，但對美元沒有立即影響，至少昨天沒有。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

在4小時圖上，該貨幣對在突破橫向區間後保持上升趨勢。目前的趨勢為多頭，這從上升趨勢通道中可以看出。從1.0818的61.8%費波那契線位遭到拒絕，意味著可能進一步上升到下一個回撤水準76.4%－1.0969。然而，CCI和RSI指標上形成的熊市背離暗示潛在的下跌可能性。在小時圖上，修正也正在醞釀。聯邦儲備局給予美元增強的機會，這一行動可能已經開始。

交易員承諾報告（COT）：

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

在上週的報告周期中，專業交易者開立了3,424份多頭頭寸，並結束了19,772份空頭頭寸。這一變化使“非商業”類別回到了多頭立場——這要歸功於唐納·川普。投機者所持有的多頭頭寸總數目前達到188K，而空頭頭寸為175K。

連續二十周以來，機構投資者一直在拋售歐元，但在過去五周中，他們一直在減少空頭頭寸並增加多頭頭寸。歐洲央行和美聯儲之間的貨幣政策差異表明，利率差異應該有利於美元，但川普的貿易政策已成為交易者更為決定性的因素。他的政策可能迫使美聯儲採取更鴿派的立場，並增加美國經濟的衰退風險。

美國和歐元區的經濟日曆：

歐元區：

  • 歐洲央行行長 Christine Lagarde 的演講（08:00 UTC）

美國：

  • 初請失業金人數（12:30 UTC）
  • 費城聯儲製造業指數（12:30 UTC）
  • 現有房屋銷售數據（14:00 UTC）

3月20日，經濟日曆包含四個關鍵事件，但只有Lagarde的演講具有重大意義。周四市場情緒的整體基本影響可能較弱。

EUR/USD 預測及交易建議：

可以在小時圖上從1.0944的拒絕中進行賣出操作，目標位1.0857和1.0797。這些交易可以暫時保持開放。可以考慮買入頭寸，但我對該貨幣對強勢且幾乎不間斷的上升保持謹慎。我對這種單向走勢持懷疑態度。目前，我認為趨勢開始在空頭的方向上變化。

斐波那契回撤水平是在小時圖上從1.0529到1.0213建立的，並在4小時圖上從1.1214到1.0179建立。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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