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外汇市场分析

20.03.202519:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD：三月二十日（美國交易時段）初學者交易者的簡單交易技巧

歐元交易分析與建議

1.0887的價格測試與MACD指標已大幅低於零點的時刻一致，這限制了該貨幣對的下行潛力。基於這個原因，我沒有賣出歐元。

關於美聯儲可能繼續降息的討論已經退居次要地位，而市場焦點轉向歐洲央行（ECB）及其進一步放寬貨幣政策的傾向。鑑於歐元區的通脹數據利好，下一次ECB會議上降息的可能性相當高。這種投資者情緒的轉變增強了美元，因為預期ECB更鴿派的立場可能削弱歐元最近的漲勢。

今天下午，注意力將集中在一系列美國經濟指標上，包括初次申領失業救濟金人數、費城聯邦製造業指數和經常帳戶餘額。積極的美國數據可能進一步增強美元對歐元的優勢。失業救濟金人數的下降將顯示出勞動市場的穩定，而費城聯邦指數的上升則表示該地區製造業的增長。這些因素結合在一起可能對美元的走勢產生重大影響。如果數據符合或超出預期，美元將獲得支撐並對其他貨幣，尤其是歐元，增強。否則，美元可能走弱。

關於日內策略，我將主要依賴場景1和場景2。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境#1：今天如果價格達到1.0861（圖表上的綠線），可以考慮買入歐元，目標是上升到1.0916。在1.0916時，計劃退出市場並在反方向賣出歐元，預期從進場點反彈30-35個點。今天歐元上漲的可能性僅在美國數據疲弱時出現。重要提示！買入前，請確保MACD指標在零以上並且剛開始上升。

情境#2：如果歐元在1.0826水平發生兩次連續測試，而MACD指標處於超賣區，我也打算買入歐元。這將限制匯率下行潛力並觸發看漲反轉。可以期待朝向1.0861和1.0916阻力位的上升。

賣出信號

情境#1：計劃在價格達到1.0826（圖表上的紅線）時賣出歐元，目標1.0775，在該水準退出市場並立即在反方向買入（預期將從該水準回調20-25個點）。如果美國數據強勁，賣壓可能會回歸。重要提示！賣出前，請確保MACD指標在零以下並且剛開始下降。

情境#2：如果歐元在1.0861水平發生兩次連續測試，而MACD指標處於超買區，我也打算賣出歐元。這將限制匯率上行潛力並觸發看跌反轉，預期將下跌到1.0826和1.0775。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

圖表說明：

  • 細綠線 – 買入交易的入場價格。
  • 粗綠線 – 預估的止盈價格，因為超過此水平進一步增長的可能性較小。
  • 細紅線 – 賣出交易的入場價格。
  • 粗紅線 – 預估的止盈價格，因為低於此水平進一步下跌的可能性較小。
  • MACD指標 – 交易者應在進入市場時考慮超買和超賣區域。

初學者交易者的重要注意事項：

剛入市的外匯交易者在做出入場決策時應謹慎行事。在主要基本報告發佈之前，最好保持觀望以避免價格劇烈波動。如果您決定在新聞發布期間進行交易，請務必設置止損單以將損失降至最低。沒有止損單，您很可能會快速損失全部存款，特別是在沒有適當資金管理的情況下進行大額交易時更是如此。

請記住，成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃，如上所述。根據當前市場變動做出的即興決策往往會導致日內交易者的虧損。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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