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20.03.202519:34 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY:供初學者交易者於3月20日(美國時段)參考的簡單交易提示

日圓交易分析和建議

當MACD指標剛開始從零線向上運行時,148.53的價格測試發生,確認了一個正確的購買美元的入點。因此,該貨幣對僅獲得了20點。

美元的進一步走勢將取決於美國經濟數據的公布,包括初請失業金人數、費城聯儲製造業指數和經常賬戶餘額。密切關注這些宏觀經濟指標將幫助交易者更清晰地了解美國經濟,並預測美元的進一步走向。失業金申領人數的增加可能表明經濟放緩並削弱美元。

費城聯儲製造業指數,反映該地區工業活動,是一項重要指標。該指數的上升通常被視為對美元有利,而下降可能預示著經濟疲弱。顯示商品和服務進出口差額的經常賬戶餘額也起了一定作用,但影響程度不及前兩項指標。

強勁的基本面背景將有助於美元兌日圓的回升。否則,美元承受的壓力將會加大。

至於日內策略,我將主要依賴情景#1和情景#2。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境#1:如果USD/JPY價格達到148.81(圖表上的綠線),我計劃今天買入,目標是升至149.81(圖表上的粗綠線)。在149.81,我將平倉並開倉賣出,預期回調30-35點。看漲修正可能支持該貨幣對的增長。重要!在買入之前,確保MACD指標在零以上並開始上升。

情境#2:如果148.39水平出現兩次連續測試,而MACD指標處於超賣區,我也計劃買入USD/JPY。這將限制該貨幣對的下行潛力並引發看漲反轉,價格可能上升至148.81和149.81。

賣出信號

情境#1:如果USD/JPY跌破148.39(圖表上的紅線),我計劃賣出,預計該貨幣對將快速下跌。賣方的主要目標將是147.30,在那裡我將平空倉並立即開倉買入,期望回調20-25點。賣壓可能隨時出現。重要!在賣出之前,確保MACD指標在零以下並開始下降。

情境#2:如果148.81水平出現兩次連續測試,而MACD指標處於超買區,我也計劃賣出USD/JPY。這將限制該貨幣對的上升潛力並引發看跌反轉,導致價格下跌至148.39和147.30。

Exchange Rates 20.03.2025 analysis

圖表說明:

  • 細綠線 – 買入交易的進場價格。
  • 粗綠線 – 預計止盈可以設置的價格,因為進一步高於此水平的增長不太可能。
  • 細紅線 – 賣出交易的進場價格。
  • 粗紅線 – 預計止盈可以設置的價格,因為進一步低於此水平的下跌不太可能。
  • MACD指標 – 交易者在進入市場時應該考慮超買和超賣區域。

初學者交易者的重要提醒:

外匯市場的新手交易者在做進場決策時應謹慎。在重大基本面報告發布前,最好暫時不進入市場,以避免突如其來的價格波動。如果您選擇在新聞發布期間進行交易,務必設置止損訂單以最小化損失。沒有止損訂單,特別是在沒有適當資金管理的情況下進行大量交易時,您冒著迅速損失全部存款的風險。

請記住,成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃,就像上面提供的計劃一樣。基於當前市場動態的臨時決策通常會導致日內交易者遭受損失。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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