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21.03.202506:56 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 如何在3月21日交易歐元/美元貨幣對？新手交易簡單技巧及分析

週四交易分析

歐元/美元一小時圖

Exchange Rates 21.03.2025 analysis

在美聯儲會議結果公佈後，EUR/USD 貨幣對於週四下跌。最終，我們看到了美元的一些強勢，市場的反應也終於顯得較為合邏輯。讓我們回顧一下，這次的 FOMC 會議可以被視為鷹派。在最近幾周，市場出現了一些恐慌，拋售美元，同時一股腦地將所有情況考慮進去——美國經濟衰退、激進的美聯儲降息、惡性通脹等等。不過，Jerome Powell 和 FOMC 明確表示並無需擔憂：美國經濟穩定，就業市場強勁，美聯儲預計 2025 年只有兩次降息，降低通脹仍是核心重點。是的，GDP 預測被下調了，但通脹預測被上調——更高的通脹意味著利率將保持較長時間的高水平，或者減息速度會更緩慢。

EUR/USD 5分鐘圖

Exchange Rates 21.03.2025 analysis

在週四，在5分鐘的時間框架中形成了兩個不錯的交易信號。首先，該貨幣對突破了1.0888–1.0896區域，其次是突破了1.0845–1.0851區域。不幸的是，空頭未能觸及1.0797–1.0804區域，價格便回落至第二個區域，剛好是新手交易者可以關閉空頭頭寸的地方。這次交易的利潤約為30點。

星期五的交易策略：

在小時圖上，歐元/美元仍然維持中期下降趨勢，雖然全面恢復的可能性正在減弱。由於基本面和宏觀經濟背景依然更支持美元而非歐元，我們預計歐元會繼續下跌。然而，唐納•川普頻繁的關稅決定和全球秩序的聲明，不斷將美元推向低谷。因此，基礎和宏觀數據被政治和地緣政治所掩蓋，導致美元持續疲軟。

在星期五，歐元可能繼續下跌，因為市場首次對基本面做出了合理反應。從技術觀點來看，貨幣對突破了上升通道。美元被過度拋售和低估是沒有道理的——至少進行一個回調是合理的。

在5分鐘圖上，考慮在這些水平附近進行交易：1.0433–1.0451、1.0526、1.0596、1.0678、1.0726–1.0733、1.0797–1.0804、1.0845–1.0851、1.0888–1.0896、1.0940–1.0952、1.1011、1.1048。週五，美國或歐元區沒有預期重大事件發生，這可能導致波動性較低，但歐元仍可能出現小幅下跌。

核心交易系統規則：

  1. 信號強度：信號形成的時間越短（反彈或突破），信號越強。
  2. 虛假信號：若在某個水平附近有兩次或以上的交易結果為虛假信號，則應忽略該水平的後續信號。
  3. 盤整市場：在盤整時，貨幣對可能產生許多虛假信號或完全沒有信號。因此在盤整跡象出現時最好停止交易。
  4. 交易時間：開盤歐洲交易時段至美國交易時段中期之間的交易，然後手動關閉所有交易。
  5. MACD信號：在小時時間框架中，僅在波動性良好且趨勢明確（由趨勢線或趨勢通道確認）的時段內交易MACD信號。
  6. 關閉級別：若兩個價格級別相距太近（5–20點），將其視作支撐或阻力區域。
  7. 止損：在價格朝理想方向移動15點後將止損設置於損益平衡點。

關鍵圖表元素：

支撐和阻力位：這些是開盤或關盤的目標水平，也可作為設置獲利平倉訂單的參考點。

紅線：表示當前趨勢及偏向交易的方向的通道或趨勢線。

MACD指標（14,22,3）：柱狀圖和信號線被用作輔助交易信號的來源。

重要事件和報告：見於經濟日曆中，這些事件可能對價格走勢有重大影響。在其發佈期間注意或退出市場以避免出現急劇反轉。

外匯交易初學者應記住並非每個交易都將盈利，制訂明確的策略和妥善的資金管理對於長期交易成功至關重要。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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