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外汇市场分析

21.03.202509:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD：3月21日初學者交易者的簡單交易提示。昨日外匯交易回顧

英鎊交易分析與交易建議

價格在1.2965的測試發生於MACD指標明顯超過零刻度的時候，這限制了英鎊兌美元的上漲潛力。因此，我沒有購買英鎊。

在貨幣政策委員會會議上，為數8比1的多數投票支持將基準利率維持在4.5%，英鎊曾顯示上升趨勢，但持續時間不長。值得注意的是，即便是那些以前支持更寬鬆貨幣政策的委員會成員也未呼籲進一步降息，而英格蘭銀行行長安德魯·貝利呼籲他的同僚保持謹慎。在此背景下，英鎊的壓力重返，該貨幣兌對的調整持續。對經濟的擔憂超過了央行更謹慎的立場。

今天，英國公共領域淨借款和英國工業聯合會的工業訂單指數數據將被公佈。通常反映國家經濟狀況的經濟指標對貨幣具有顯著影響。如果數據不如預期，這可能表明英國經濟正在出現負面趨勢。借款和訂單的疲弱數據可能會導致英鎊下跌。

對於日內策略，我將主要依賴買入和賣出方案#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 21.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境#1：如果今天價格達到進場點1.2947附近（圖表上的綠線），我計劃買入英鎊，目標上升至1.3004（圖表上較粗的綠線）。接近1.3004時，我計劃退出買入頭寸並在相反方向開倉做空，目標是從該水平下跌30–35個點。只有在強勁數據支持下，英鎊的漲勢才可期。重要提示：在購買之前，確保MACD指標在零線之上並開始上升。

情境#2：如果1.2913價格水平連續兩次測試，我也計劃在MACD指標位於超賣區域的情況下今天買入英鎊。這將限制該貨幣對的下行潛力並導致向上反轉。可預期的是上升至對立的1.2947和1.3004水平。

賣出信號

情境#1：在英鎊跌破1.2913水平（圖表上的紅線）後，我計劃今天賣出英鎊，這可能會促使該貨幣對的急劇下跌。賣家的關鍵目標將是1.2865，在那裡我打算退出賣出交易並立即在相反方向開倉買入，目標是反彈20–25個點。最好是在盡可能高的價格賣出英鎊。重要提示：在賣出之前，確保MACD指標在零線之下並開始下跌。

情境#2：如果1.2947價格水平連續兩次測試，我也計劃在MACD指標位於超買區域的情況下今天賣出英鎊。這將限制該貨幣對的上行潛力並導致向下反轉。可預期的是下降至對立的1.2913和1.2865水平。

Exchange Rates 21.03.2025 analysis

圖表上的內容：

  • 細綠線表示可購買交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗綠線表示預期價格水平，可以在該水平設置止盈單或手動鎖定利潤，因為價格不太可能進一步上升超過該水平。
  • 細紅線表示可出售交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗紅線表示預期價格水平，可以在該水平設置止盈單或手動鎖定利潤，因為價格不太可能進一步下降超過該水平。
  • 在進入市場時應使用MACD指標來評估超買和超賣區域。

重要注意事項：

  • 初學者外匯交易者在做出市場進場決策時應格外謹慎。建議在重要基本報告發布前避免進入市場，以避免因劇烈價格波動而造成的風險。如果您選擇在新聞發布期間進行交易，始終使用止損單以最大限度地減少潛在的損失。沒有止損單的交易可能會迅速清空您的整個保證金，尤其是在忽視資金管理原則並進行大額交易時。
  • 切記，成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃，就像上述的計劃一樣。根據當前市場情況衝動做出交易決策對於日內交易者來說是一種失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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