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21.03.202512:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美元/日元:分析與預測

Exchange Rates 21.03.2025 analysis

今天,隨著公布顯示二月全國消費者物價指數(CPI)放緩的數據,日本日圓繼續以負面基調交易,引發市場的不確定性。

數據顯示,二月份日本全國消費者物價指數同比上升3.7%,低於上月的4%。雖然這種放緩是預期中的,但可能會影響日本的經濟政策。全國核心CPI(不包括生鮮食品)上升3.0%,高於預期的2.9%,但仍低於之前的3.2%。

有趣的是,來自春季勞資談判(Shunto)的初步結果顯示,日本企業在連續第三年基本同意大幅加薪。這可能會刺激消費者支出並維持通脹壓力,從而為日本央行提供進一步加息的空間。

日本銀行行長植田和男強調Shunto結果符合預期,央行將繼續其政策,直到明確是時候採取行動。實現2%的通脹目標對日本央行的長期可信度至關重要,該行已準備根據經濟和價格狀況調整政策。

投資者相信,日本強勁的工資增長可能刺激消費,並支持通脹,賦予日本央行2025年加息的空間。

另一方面,聯邦儲備系統已宣布計劃在年底前兩次降息,每次25個基點,部分原因是由於持續存在的貿易政策不確定性下調了增長預測。聯邦儲備主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾指出,關稅可能會抑制經濟增長,給美國經濟帶來額外挑戰。

因此,由於聯邦儲備系統降息預期,對美元的需求上升,幫助美元/日圓在日內維持在關鍵的149.00水平以上。

然而,聯邦儲備預期的寬鬆與日本央行緊縮政策的分歧在這對貨幣對中形成對峙,限制了美元的上漲空間,為收益較低的日圓提供支撐。這要求在進一步看漲美元/日圓時保持謹慎。

技術展望

強勁突破149.25–149.30區間將允許美元/日圓重新測試150.00的心理水平。突破150.15可能觸發短空回補反彈,推動價格朝向中間水平150.60,接著151.00,最終達到接近每月高點的151.30。

另一方面,接近148.60的亞洲時段低點現在作為即時支撐。跌破此水準將加速下跌至周低點148.20–148.15,該低點於星期四達到。

進一步的關鍵支撐位於148.00和147.70—跌破這些水準將打開下降至147.35和147.00的空間,並最終達到146.55–146.50區域,該區標誌著自10月初以來的最低水平。這一觀點受到每日圖表上負值區域振盪指標的強化。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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