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24.03.202507:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 如何在3月24日交易歐元/美元對？初學者的簡單提示和交易分析

週五交易分析

歐元/美元1小時圖表

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

歐元/美元貨幣對在週五繼續緩慢的下行走勢。幾天前，價格已經跌破了上升通道，因此可預期歐元會下跌。由於週五歐元區或美國都沒有重大事件，這可以解釋低波動性的原因。然而，值得注意的是，近幾周來，該貨幣對普遍呈現出低波動性。市場已經消化了關於唐納·川普關稅的新聞，不再盲目拋售美元。週三晚上，傑羅姆·鮑威爾表示美國經濟沒有問題。這在某種程度上穩定了市場，美聯儲保持了其先前的鷹派立場，這意味著在2025年最多減息兩次。雖然由於貿易戰美國經濟可能放緩，但同樣的情況也適用於英國和歐盟。基本上，我們看到的是一場情緒上的拋售美元，並沒有具體的基礎或宏觀經濟驅動因素支持。現在一個調整已經迫在眉睫。

歐元/美元5分鐘圖

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

在5分鐘時間框架上，週五出現了幾個信號，但日內走勢較弱。1.0845-1.0851區域已經轉移至1.0859-1.0861。在之前這個區域中，買入和賣出信號於週五觸發。買入信號是虛假的，而賣出信號是有利可圖的，因為最接近的目標已達成。因此，新手交易者在週五不太可能遭受損失，但從這樣的弱勢波動中盈利也相當困難。

週一交易策略：

在小時圖中，EUR/USD仍然處於中期下行趨勢，但其延續的可能性在減小。由於基礎和宏觀經濟背景繼續更有利於美元而非歐元，我們仍然預期進一步下跌。不過，Donald Trump持續的關稅決策及其對美國全球主導權的願景正在拖累美元。基礎經濟和宏觀經濟被政治和地緣政治所影響，所以目前不預期美元大幅上漲。

週一，歐元可能繼續下跌，因為市場首次在一段時間後對基礎因素正確反應（美聯儲會議），技術上來說，匯價已經跌破上升通道。美元被過度超賣且低估，但沒有充分的理由。可能會出現回調。

在5分鐘圖，注意以下水平：1.0433-1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0859-1.0861, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1048。週一，德國、歐元區、美國將發布3月服務業和製造業PMI初步數據。這些是中等重要性的報告，但可能引發市場反應。

核心交易系統規則：

  1. 信號強度：形成信號（反彈或突破）的時間越短，信號越強。
  2. 虛假信號：如果在一個水平附近的兩筆或多筆交易導致虛假信號，則應忽略該水準後續信號。
  3. 盤整市場：在盤整條件下，貨幣對可能產生許多虛假信號或根本沒有信號。在出現盤整信號的第一時間最好停止交易。
  4. 交易時間：在歐洲交易時段開始至美國交易時段中間之間開立交易，然後手動平倉所有交易。
  5. MACD信號：在小時圖中，僅在有良好波動性和通過趨勢線或趨勢通道確認的明確趨勢期間交易MACD信號。
  6. 緊湊水平：如果兩個水平太近（5-20點之間），則將它們視為支撐或阻力區域。
  7. 止損：在價格向理想方向移動15點後，將止損設置到保本點。

主要圖表元素：

支撐和阻力水平：這些是開倉或平倉的目標水準，也可以作為設置止盈訂單的點。

紅色線條：表示當前趨勢的通道或趨勢線和交易的首選方向。

MACD指標（14,22,3）：用作交易信號的補充來源的直方圖和信號線。

重要事件和報告：在經濟日曆中找到，這些可能會嚴重影響價格走勢。在它們釋放期間要謹慎或退出市場以避免劇烈反轉。

外匯交易新手應記住，不是每筆交易都會盈利。制定清晰的策略和練習正確的資金管理對於長期交易成功至關重要。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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