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24.03.202507:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 3月24日應注意什麼?給初學者的基本事件分析

宏觀經濟報告分析:

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

周一將有八個宏觀經濟事件排定。德國、歐元區、美國和英國將發布製造業和服務業商業活動指數的三月份初步讀數。就單個指數而言,對於交易的影響可能相對較小,但由於總共有八個指數發佈,市場反應可能會更加顯著。預計所有歐洲指數將略有增加,但需強調的是,重要的是實際數據與預測的比較,而不僅僅是絕對值。如果實際讀數高於之前的數據,但低於預期,則相關貨幣可能會出現下跌。

基本面事件分析:

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

英國央行行長Andrew Bailey的演講在週一的基本事件中尤為重要。然而,鑒於英國央行在週四剛舉行了政策會議,而Bailey在會議上已經充分表達了他對經濟、通脹和貨幣政策的看法,因此很難期望Bailey會在週一提供任何新的或顯著的見解。我們認為Bailey不太可能在週一為市場提供任何新鮮的見解。英國央行採取了略為鷹派的立場,這對英鎊形成支撐。然而,需要注意的是,英鎊已經連續三週穩步上升,沒有停頓或修正。無論Bailey的言辭或者英國央行的立場如何,英鎊都需要進行回調。

總結:

在新一週的第一個交易日,兩個貨幣對可能會繼續其近幾周來的下跌趨勢。這兩對貨幣都已經跌破上升通道,而美聯儲當前的立場讓美元能夠重新奪回部分它不該失去的地盤。當然,沒人知道川普何時會宣布新的貿易關稅,但即使如此也無法引發美元無休止的下跌。

交易系統的關鍵規則:

  1. 信號強度:信號形成的時間越短(反彈或突破),信號越強。
  2. 虛假信號:如果在某水準附近的兩次或多次交易結果顯示為虛假信號,則該水準後續的信號應被忽略。
  3. 平市:在平市條件下,貨幣對可能會生成許多虛假信號或根本沒有信號。最好在出現平市跡象時停止交易。
  4. 交易時間:在歐洲交易時段開始到美國時段中間之間開倉,然後手動平倉所有交易。
  5. MACD信號:在小時圖時間框架上,只有在波動性良好且有明確趨勢得到趨勢線或趨勢通道確認時,才交易MACD信號。
  6. 緊密的水準:如果兩個水準過於接近(相差5–20點),將它們視作支撐或阻力區域。
  7. 止損:當價格朝預期方向移動15–20點時,將止損設置為盈虧平衡。

關鍵圖表元素:

支撐和阻力水準:這些是開倉或平倉的目標水準,也可用作設置盈利訂單的點位。

紅線:顯示當前趨勢和優先交易方向的通道或趨勢線。

MACD指標 (14,22,3):作為輔助交易信號來源的柱狀圖和信號線。

重要的演講和報告,持續出現在新聞日曆中,可能對貨幣對的走勢產生重大影響。因此,在它們發布期間,審慎交易或考慮退出市場以避免可能逆轉之前的趨勢而經歷的急劇價格波動是明智的。

外匯市場的初學者應理解,不是每筆交易都會盈利。制定明確的交易策略和實踐有效的資金管理對於達成長期交易成功至關重要。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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