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外汇市场分析

24.03.202508:22 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 3月24日初學者交易員的日內策略

上週末歐元和英鎊仍然承受壓力。這些交易工具的修正已經延遲很久，目前為止，風險資產的買家暫時沒有理由感到恐慌。

由於擔憂區域經濟增長進一步放緩，歐元承受了額外的壓力。與此同時，美聯儲官員的評論強化了市場對美國採取謹慎降息策略的預期，這支撐了美元並對歐元產生了負面影響。在這種環境下，市場參與者表現出謹慎態度並避免持有更具風險的資產。歐元的走勢將在很大程度上取決於即將公佈的宏觀經濟數據和各央行的信號。

今天上午將公佈的一些經濟報告或能放慢歐元的下跌趨勢——但這僅在實際數據超出預期的情況下成立。具體而言，歐元區將發佈3月製造業PMI、服務業PMI和綜合PMI。考慮到歐洲央行較為寬鬆的貨幣政策支持下，歐元區國家製造業活動的恢復跡象，歐元在上午走強的前景顯得相對樂觀。

製造業PMI作為衡量工業部門健康狀況的關鍵指標將受到密切關注。該指數的上升可能表明產能恢復及經濟好轉。相反，如果PMI下降，可能表示經濟增長放緩或經濟衰退即將來臨。

類似的數據也將於英國發佈，重點關注服務業，因其佔英國經濟超過70%。服務業活動指數至關重要，反映了如商業、銀行、物流等行業的狀況。此指標為消費開支水平和整體經濟面貌提供洞察。

如果數據符合經濟學家的預期，建議使用均值回歸策略。若數據明顯偏離預期，則偏好動量策略。

動量策略（突破）：

EUR/USD

在突破1.0840後買入，可能上升至1.0870及1.0910。

在突破1.0805後賣出，可能下降至1.0770及1.0740。

GBP/USD

在突破1.2935後買入，可能上升至1.2975及1.3010。

在突破1.2910後賣出，可能下降至1.2875及1.2841。

USD/JPY

在突破149.92後買入，可能上升至150.18及150.49。

在突破149.62後賣出，可能下降至149.32及148.97。

均值回歸策略（回調）：

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

EUR/USD

我將在價格未能突破1.0847上方後，並回落到此水平以下時考慮賣出。

我將在價格未能向下突破1.0813後，並返回到此水平時考慮買入。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

GBP/USD

當價格未能突破1.2942上方並回落至該水平以下時，我會考慮賣出。

當價格未能突破1.2903下方並返回到該水平時，我會考慮買入。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

AUD/USD

如果匯率突破失敗並回落至高於0.6304的水平，我將考慮賣出。

如果匯率突破失敗並回升至0.6268的水平，我將考慮買入。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

USD/CAD

我將在未能突破1.4358上方後，價格回落至該水平以下時尋求賣出。

我將在未能突破1.4318下方後，價格回升至該水平時尋求買入。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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