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24.03.202510:23 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 市場厭倦了下跌。投資者尋找增長觸發因素（如果美國經濟數據有利，#SPX 和 #NDX 期貨上的差價合約可能會上升）

全球金融市場在多國因唐納德·特朗普提高關稅而成為目標的背景下，不斷擺盪於不確定性之間，這已引發了相應的報復性措施。

美國的春季企業盈利季度進行得相當順利。總體而言，企業報告顯示出積極的表現，這應該讓投資者感到樂觀。然而，這並未轉化為指數的持續上升。美國總統推動的關稅依舊是主要原因，因為特朗普持續使用激進的地緣政治策略來迫使其主要貿易伙伴支付美國經濟復甦的費用。儘管如此，股市仍然保持穩定，從企業盈利即可見一斑，但最近的經濟活動數據——尤其是製造業——並沒有激發進一步的樂觀情緒。

今天公佈的製造業和服務業的PMI數據尤為值得關注。根據共識預測，美國的製造業PMI預計將從52.7放緩至3月份的51.9。然而，它仍然預計會保持在50點以上，顯示出美國實體經濟的持續擴張。同時，服務業PMI預計將從初步的51.0上升至51.2，如果數據符合或超出預期，這也會是一個積極信號。

關稅問題似乎正在接近其高峰，4月2日是特朗普實施其承諾的全面進口關稅的截止日期。有趣的是，今天美國三大股指期貨開盤出現向上的缺口，表明市場已經將關稅這一主題計入其中。同時，投資者認為特朗普可能不會真正實施關稅。如先前所述，他的目標是施壓貿易伙伴多付一些成本來減少貿易逆差，並緩解財政負擔——這些措施無疑會支持國內經濟增長。

如果今天的PMI報告符合或超出預期，它們可能會為美國股市提供局部支撐，這也可能惠及全球股權指數。如果4月2日的關稅被延後或緩和，本周美國股市的反彈可能會變成更大的行情，並帶動主要股指的強勢上行。

如果PMI數據顯示出積極的勢頭，這一情境看起來相對現實。那將有助於平息投資者對美國經濟即將衰退的擔憂。

今日預測：

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis
Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis
#SPX

今天，S&P 500 期貨的CFD合約以上升缺口開盤，表明市場對於即將公佈的關鍵PMI報告持樂觀預期。如果數據符合預期或顯示進一步增長，該合約可能會上漲。突破5711.85的阻力位可能引發進一步上升至5773.65，建議入場點在5721.47。

#NDX

對於NASDAQ 100期貨，CFD合約同樣以上升缺口開盤，反映出市場對於今天公佈的關鍵PMI數據持樂觀態度。如果數據符合或超出預測並表現出上升勢頭，這可能會增加該合約的需求。突破19946.00阻力位後的潛在目標可能設定為20239.80，建議入場點在19977.00。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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