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外汇市场分析

24.03.202509:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD：3月24日初学者的简单交易技巧。昨日外汇交易回顾

英鎊交易分析及交易提示

在測試1.2947這個水平時，MACD指標已經顯著超過零值，這限制了該貨幣對的上行潛力。因此，我沒有買入英鎊。

到週五結束時，英鎊仍處於調整階段。然而，每次像樣的下跌很快就被買入，表明看漲潛力依然存在，儘管短期上行前景仍不確定且很大程度上取決於今天的英國數據。考慮到通脹上升和英國央行有關未來貨幣政策的混合信號，投資者對英國經濟前景保持謹慎。

今天的宏觀經濟數據——尤其是英國三月份的製造業PMI、服務業PMI和綜合PMI將發揮重要作用。

特別值得關注的是製造業PMI，它提供了工業部門在高能源價格背景下的狀況分析。這項數據反映了企業對未來訂單和生產量的情緒和預期。然而，更加重要的是服務業PMI，它捕捉了佔英國經濟很大部分的行業動態。該指數的上升或下降可以表明消費需求和投資活動的變化，直接影響到國家的整體經濟健康和英鎊。

綜合PMI結合了製造業和服務業數據，將提供更全面的英國經濟狀況。疲弱的經濟數據可能導致英鎊價值進一步調整。

針對日內策略，我將主要聚焦於執行方案#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境1：今天，我計劃在達到入場點1.2935（圖表上的綠線）時買入英鎊，目標是升至1.2985（圖表上較粗的綠線）。在接近1.2985時，我計劃平掉多頭倉位並開立反向的空頭倉位，預期將會有30–35點的回調。只有數據強勁的情況下，對英鎊持看漲的前景才是合理的。重要提醒！在購買之前，請確保MACD指標位於零線之上並開始上升。

情境2：如果1.2907水準出現兩次連續測試，同時MACD指標處於超賣區，我也計劃在今天買入英鎊。這將限制下行潛力並引發反彈向上。預計將衝向1.2935和1.2985的相反水準。

賣出信號

情境1：我計劃在跌破1.2907水準（圖表上的紅線）後賣出英鎊，這可能會導致快速下跌。賣方的關鍵目標將是1.2865，我打算在此平掉空頭倉位並立即開立反向的多頭倉位，預期將會出現20–25點的反彈。最好從儘可能高的水準賣出英鎊。重要提醒！在賣出之前，請確保MACD指標位於零線之下並開始從中下跌。

情境2：如果1.2935水準出現兩次連續測試，同時MACD指標處於超買區，我也計劃在今天賣出英鎊。這將限制貨幣對的上行潛力並引發反轉向下。預計將下跌至1.2907和1.2865的相反水準。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

圖表上的內容：

  • 細綠線代表交易工具可以買入的進場價格。
  • 粗綠線表示預期的價格水準，可以在此設下止盈單，或者在此水準將獲利手動落袋為安，因為價格在此以上進一步上漲的可能性較低。
  • 細紅線代表交易工具可以賣出的進場價格。
  • 粗紅線表示預期的價格水準，可以在此設下止盈單，或者在此水準將獲利手動落袋為安，因為價格在此以下進一步下跌的可能性較低。
  • 在進場時，應使用MACD指標來評估超買和超賣區域。

重要提示：

  • 初學者外匯交易員在做出市場進場決定時應格外謹慎。建議在重要基礎報告發布之前暫時退出市場，以避免承受劇烈的價格波動。如果選擇在新聞發布時進行交易，務必使用止損單來減少可能的損失。未使用止損單進行交易可能會迅速消耗掉整個存款，特別是在忽視資金管理原則並使用高交易量的情況下。
  • 請記住，成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃，如上述計劃所示。根據當前市場情況做出衝動交易決策對於日內交易者來說是失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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