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外汇市场分析

24.03.202509:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY：2023年3月24日初學交易者的簡單交易技巧。昨日外匯交易回顧

日圓交易分析與建議

在MACD指標剛開始從零線下行時，149.26的測試證實了一個有效的賣出美元的進場點。因此，該貨幣對下跌至148.69的目標水平。從該水平反彈買入，也讓交易者從市場中獲得約30點的利潤。

今日公佈的數據顯示日本製造業PMI和服務業PMI明顯比經濟學家預測的更糟，引發了日圓拋售和美元走強。投資者對這些疲弱的經濟數據迅速作出反應，擔心日本經濟增長放緩，從而導致對日圓需求減少。另一個增大日圓壓力的因素，是市場預期美聯儲將維持其鷹派的貨幣政策。近期的宏觀經濟數據支持了美國經濟的穩定性，這進一步促使投資者購買美元，使其成為更具吸引力的資產。然而，儘管如此，日本和美國的貨幣政策不再有顯著的分歧。日本央行仍傾向於加息，因此美元對日圓的目前漲勢可能很快就會結束——尤其是在日本央行暗示進一步貨幣緊縮的情況下。

對於日內策略，我將主要集中於執行方案#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情景 #1：今天，我計劃在USD/JPY達到約149.95的進入點位（圖表上的綠線）時買入，目標是150.73（較粗的綠線）。在150.73附近，我打算結束多單並在相反的方向上開立賣出頭寸，目標是回撤30-35點。最好是在USD/JPY的修正和深度回撤時重新買入。重要！在買入之前，確保MACD指標在零線之上並開始上升。

情景 #2：如果今天USD/JPY在149.42水平出現兩次連續測試，同時MACD指標處於超賣區，我也計劃買入。這將限制該貨幣對的下行潛力並引發上行反轉。預期會向149.95和150.73的相反水平移動。

賣出信號

情景 #1：只有在149.42水平（圖表上的紅線）被突破後我才計劃賣出USD/JPY，引發該貨幣對的急劇下滑。賣家的主要目標將是148.76，我打算在此水平結束空單並立即在相反方向開立多單，目標是回撤20-25點。貨幣對的下行壓力可能隨時回歸。重要！在賣出之前，確保MACD指標在零線之下並開始下滑。

情景 #2：在149.95水平出現兩次連續測試時，如果MACD指標處於超買區，我今天也計劃賣出USD/JPY。這將限制該貨幣對的上行潛力並引發下行反轉。預期會向149.42和148.76的相反水平移動。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

圖表上的內容：

  • 細綠線代表可購買交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗綠線表示可設定獲利了結單的預期價格水平，或者手動保留利潤，因為價格進一步超過此水準上升的可能性不大。
  • 細紅線代表可出售交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗紅線表示可設定獲利了結單的預期價格水平，或者手動保留利潤，因為價格進一步低於此水準下跌的可能性不大。
  • 當進入市場時，應使用MACD指標來評估超買和超賣區域。

重要注意事項：

  • 初學者在做出市場進場決策時應格外謹慎。建議在重要基本報告發布前避開市場，以避免暴露於劇烈的價格波動。如果選擇在消息發布期間進行交易，請務必使用止損單以減少潛在損失。沒有止損單的交易可能會迅速損失你所有的賬戶資金，特別是如果忽視資金管理原則並以大批量進行交易。
  • 請記住，成功交易需要明確的交易計劃，類似於上述計劃。基於當前市場情況做出衝動交易決策對於日內交易者來說是一種失敗策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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