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24.03.202512:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD。3月24日。英鎊新週開局全速前進

在小時圖上,英鎊/美元對週五繼續下跌,甚至跌破了1.2931水平。然而,這一下跌是短暫的,因為英鎊的空頭依然非常弱。上週,他們還受到意外採取相當強硬貨幣政策立場的英格蘭銀行的反制。如此一來,唐納德·特朗普的關稅加上英格蘭銀行的立場,意味著英鎊的再度增長。該貨幣對在1.2931以上的盤整使我們有理由預期向下一個斐波那契回撤水平127.2% 即1.3003的持續增長。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

波動情況非常明確。最後完成的下行波並未突破先前波的低點,而最近的上行波卻突破了上一個高峰。因此,牛市趨勢的形成得以持續。近期英鎊顯示出強勁增長,但新聞背景並不足以支持如此激進的看漲行為。然而,即使有經濟數據,大多數交易者仍不願購買美元,因為唐納德·特朗普不斷加徵新關稅,這很可能會損害美國及其他全球經濟體的增長。

週五沒有新聞背景,本週也不會有太多。英國和美國將發佈各種報告,但都不是頂級新聞。最受關注的將是美國的GDP報告。我認為,這週唐納德·特朗普將繼續主導市場。最近幾週,交易者對白宮的新聞反應不太積極,但也沒有太多關稅相關的新聞。特朗普繼續宣傳4月2日為“美國解放日”,所以新關稅不久將公佈是毫無疑問的。而即便在沒有新聞背景的情況下,美元已經開始這周的新一輪下滑。特朗普正在竭盡全力讓美國貨幣持續走弱。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

在4小時圖上,該貨幣對持續上漲。我並不預期英鎊會有大幅下跌,除非該貨幣對跌破上升通道。CCI指標再次形成了看跌背離,但與之前的一樣,尚未對多頭的立場造成影響。從1.2994水平的反彈讓我們預計會有小幅回跌至1.2861的50.0%斐波那契水平,不過空頭可能連這一點都達不到。

交易者承諾報告 (COT) 報告:

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

「非商業」交易者類別的情緒在上週報告期間變得更加樂觀。投機者持有的多頭頭寸增加了1,155份,而空頭頭寸上升了946份。空頭已失去其市場優勢。目前多頭與空頭的頭寸差距接近30,000份,多頭利益顯著:96,000對67,000。

在我看來,英鎊仍有長期下跌的空間,但最近的發展可能會導致市場反轉。在過去三個月中,多頭頭寸從98,000減少到96,000,而空頭頭寸從78,000降至67,000。更顯著的是,在過去的七週中,多頭從59,000增長到96,000,而空頭從81,000減少到67,000。我提醒你,這是特朗普領導下的七週。

英國和美國新聞日程表:

英國 - 製造業PMI (09:30 UTC) 英國 - 服務業PMI (09:30 UTC) 美國 - S&P製造業PMI (13:45 UTC) 美國 - S&P服務業PMI (13:45 UTC)

週一的經濟日程表包括四個條目,但交易者從早上開始就已經明確表示,這些不會對市場情緒產生重大影響。今天,新聞背景對市場情緒的影響將較弱。

GBP/USD 預測和交易者建議:

在小時圖上,從1.3003水平起可做空,目標位於1.2931和1.2865。第一目標已達到,第二目標尚未達成。在小時圖上穩定於1.2931水平上方可做多,目標為1.3003。

斐波那契水平在小時圖上從1.2809到1.2100繪製,而在4小時圖上則從1.2299到1.3432繪製。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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