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24.03.202514:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美元/日元。分析與預測

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

本週開始時,由於日本的採購經理人指數(PMI)較弱,日圓面臨壓力。這一情況結合美國總統唐納德·特朗普宣布的較窄和不那麼激進的報復性關稅的消息,提升了投資者信心,減少了對日圓作為避險貨幣的需求。然而,市場預期日本央行將繼續加息,限制了日圓更大的跌幅。

根據初步估計,3月份日本的Au Jibun Bank製造業PMI從49.0下降至48.3,為2024年3月以來的最低讀數,並創下九個月以來的新低。該數據也顯示服務業下降,這是五個月以來的首次萎縮。這些數據對日圓構成壓力。

儘管如此,也有一些因素支持日圓,阻止其更大的跌幅──如日本央行行長植田和男重申,如果通脹達到目標,央行準備調整其寬鬆政策。副行長內田慎一也表示,央行將密切監測經濟和價格發展。這一信號顯示日本央行將根據經濟狀況採取行動。

同時,美聯儲上調了通脹預期,但維持了年底前進行兩次25個基點降息的展望。這限制了美元的復甦,並使美元/日圓走勢在接近心理關口150.00附近受限。

為了今天獲得更好的交易機會,應關注美國商業活動指數的發布以及FOMC成員的講話,這些可能為美元/日圓提供額外的動力。然而,市場的主要焦點將放在週五發布的東京消費者物價指數和美國核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數。

從技術角度來看,美元/日圓的多頭需要突破4小時圖上的200期簡單移動平均線(SMA),該線略高於心理關口150.00。如果該水平被突破,現貨價格可能上漲至151.00的整數關口,然後達到151.30附近的月度高點。

然而,考慮到日線圖上的震盪指標尚未顯示出正向動能,亞洲交易時段的低點約為149.33,目前作為立即支撐點,緊隨其後的是149.00整數位。跌破該水平可能觸發對148.60區域的突破,打開更大跌幅的空間,加速向上週的波動低點約148.20進行下行,最終可能跌至148.00整數水平,甚至更低。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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