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24.03.202517:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元：3月24日美國交易時段計劃（早盤交易回顧）

在我早上的預測中，我強調了1.0856這個水平，並計劃基於此做出交易決策。讓我們來看看5分鐘的圖表發生了什麼。價格上漲並在該水平形成了一個假突破，這提供了一個好的進場點，導致了20個點的下跌。當天下半場的技術展望沒有變化。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

開立歐元/美元的多頭頭寸：

歐元區相對疲弱的PMI活動數據阻止了歐元對美元的進一步上升。在下半日，我們正期待美國製造業PMI、服務業PMI和綜合PMI的數據。預計聯邦公開市場委員會成員Raphael Bostic和Michael S. Barr的講話也可能被解讀為有利於美元走強。若數據強勁且該貨幣對進一步修正，只有在1.0806支撐位附近出現假突破，才會成為新的歐元/美元買入信號，以構建一個目標重新測試1.0856的看漲市場。突破並從上到下重新測試此區間將確認多頭頭寸的正確進入點，目標為1.0905。最遠的目標將是1.0952區域，我計劃在該處獲利了結。如果歐元/美元下跌且在1.0806附近沒有活動，如此情況更可能發生，則該貨幣對可能延續修正。在這種情況下，賣方可能會將價格壓低至1.0770。只有在那裡形成假突破後，我才會考慮買入歐元。我計劃在1.0743反彈時開多頭頭寸，目標是日內反彈修正30–35個點。

開立歐元/美元的空頭頭寸：

賣方出現了，如果市場對美聯儲官員發言的反應為負，只有在1.0856附近的假突破——類似於上面討論的情況——才允許開立空頭頭寸，目標在1.0806支撐區域。突破並鞏固在此區間下方將提供另一個賣出機會，移向1.0770，該位置本身將代表一個顯著的修正。最遠的目標將是1.0743區域，我計劃在該處獲利了結。如果歐元/美元在下半日走高且空頭在1.0856附近保持沉默，買方可能觸發新的上行。在這種情況下，我將推遲空頭頭寸，直到該貨幣對測試下一個阻力位1.0905。我僅會在那裡出現未成功的突破後才賣出。如果在那個水平也沒有向下的動作，我將考慮在1.0952反彈時開立空頭頭寸，目標為向下修正30–35個點。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

3月11日的交易員持倉報告 (COT Report)：

長倉有所增加，空頭顯著減少。對歐元購買的興趣持續增長，而賣方則迅速退出市場。德國的財政刺激政策及其獲得歐洲央行的強力支持，正在提升歐元的需求。此外，烏克蘭衝突的解決進展也支持了這一單一貨幣。即將到來的美聯儲會議可能會進一步削弱美元，尤其是如果監管者採取比預期更溫和的立場。COT報告顯示，非商業多頭頭寸增加3,424至188,647，而空頭頭寸減少19,772至175,557。結果，長短頭寸之間的差距擴大了8,097，對多頭有利。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

指標信號：

移動平均線

交易正在30-和50-周期移動平均線附近進行，這表明市場在橫向盤整。

注意：作者考慮的是H1圖表上的移動平均線，這與D1圖表上的經典日移動平均線不同。

Bollinger Bands

如果市場下跌，指標的下邊界1.0849將充當支撐位。

指標描述：

• 移動平均線（用於通過平滑波動性和噪音來識別當前趨勢）。周期 – 50，在圖表上用黃色標示； • 移動平均線。周期 – 30，在圖表上用綠色標示； • MACD指標（移動平均收斂/發散）。快速EMA – 週期12，慢速EMA – 週期26，SMA – 週期9； • Bollinger Bands。周期 – 20； • 非商業交易者 – 投機者包括個人交易者、對沖基金和使用期貨市場進行投機並符合某些條件的大機構； • 長期非商業頭寸代表非商業交易者的總多頭未平倉頭寸； • 短期非商業頭寸代表非商業交易者的總空頭未平倉頭寸； • 總非商業淨頭寸是由非商業交易者持有的空頭和多頭頭寸之間的差異。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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