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24.03.202517:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD:3月24日美國交易時段的交易計劃(早間交易回顧)

在我的晨間預測中,我強調了1.2968的水平,並計劃基於此做出交易決策。讓我們來看看5分鐘圖表並分析發生了什麼。匯率在1.2968附近上漲並形成假突破,提供了一個良好的英鎊賣出進入點,導致下跌了20點。當日下午的技術圖形略有修正。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

開立英鎊/美元多頭頭寸的策略:

英國製造業數據走弱被服務業的強勁表現所抵消。下午,與美國類似的指標一起,我們預期聽到FOMC成員Raphael Bostic和Michael S. Barr的講話。只有政策制定者發表鷹派立場的言論才能重新對英鎊施加壓力。否則,該貨幣對可能繼續上漲,尤其是在美國數據強勁的情況下。如果對這些言論的反應是看跌的,只有環繞在1.2928附近的虛假突破將是有良好開倉時機的信號,目標是回到尚未被突破的1.2968阻力位上方。從上到下突破並重測該範圍將提供新的長倉進場點,目標為更新至1.3010,帶回多頭市場。最遠的目標將是1.3056區域,我計劃在此止盈。如果英鎊/美元下跌且在下午英鎊多頭未在1.2928附近表現活躍,對英鎊的壓力將顯著增加,可能影響該對的多頭前景。在這種情況下,一個近1.2888的虛假突破將是開倉做多的合適條件。我計劃在1.2846支撐位反彈時立即買入英鎊/美元,目標是30-35點的日內修正。

開立英鎊/美元空頭頭寸的策略:

英鎊顯著上漲,但賣家仍在場,如1.2968區域明顯所示。該水平仍是下半日的焦點。當地的虛假突破,類似於先前討論的情況,將提供做空進場點,目標為1.2928。從下到上突破並重測該範圍將觸發止損單,敞開朝1.2888的通路,已顯示出顯著修正。最遠的目標將是1.2846區域,我計劃在此止盈。測試該水平可能會停止多頭市場的發展。如果在下半日對英鎊的需求持續,而空頭未能在1.2968附近行動,那麼最好將空頭頭寸推遲到該對測試1.3010阻力時再行動。我將只在虛假突破時賣出。如果那裡也沒有下行運動,我將在1.3056的反彈中尋找空頭倉位,目標為30-35點的日內修正。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

3月11日的COT報告(交易員持倉報告):

多頭和空頭持倉都有所增加,而多頭持倉增加得更加顯著,這使得英鎊買家的優勢更加明顯。這在GBP/USD圖表上也有所反映。考慮到英國經濟的正面趨勢以及英格蘭銀行相對緩慢的降息步伐,GBP/USD可能會持續上升。即將召開的美聯儲會議可能會進一步削弱美元,因此英鎊買家目前的擔憂不大。然而,交易者仍應慎防行情在衝擊新的局部高點途中可能出現的回調。最新的COT報告顯示,非商業多頭持倉增加12,920份至94,786份,而非商業空頭持倉僅增長2,301份至65,593份。因此,多頭和空頭持倉之間的差距擴大了10,925份。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

指標信號:

移動平均線

交易發生在30和50周期移動平均線下方,這表明市場正在修正。

注意:這些移動平均線的周期和價格是基於作者在H1圖表上的分析,與D1圖表上的經典每日移動平均線不同。

布林帶

如果出現下跌,指標下邊界附近的1.2950將充當支撐位。

指標描述:

• 移動平均線(用於透過平滑波動和噪聲來確定當前趨勢)。周期 – 50,圖表中用黃色標註; • 移動平均線。周期 – 30,圖表中用綠色標註; • MACD指標(移動平均匯聚/背馳)。快速EMA – 週期12,慢速EMA – 週期26,SMA – 週期9; • 布林帶。周期 – 20; • 非商業交易者 – 投機者,如個別交易者、對沖基金和利用期貨市場進行投機和滿足特定需求的大型機構; • 空頭非商業倉位表示非商業交易者總的空頭未平倉倉位; • 總的非商業淨倉位是非商業交易者持有的空頭倉位與多頭倉位之間的差額。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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