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外汇市场分析

24.03.202517:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD：3月24日（美國交易時段）給初學交易者的簡單交易技巧

歐元交易分析與建議

當MACD指標已經大幅升至零點以上時，1.0842水平的測試就已發生，這限制了貨幣對的上行潛力。因此，我沒有購買歐元。隨後，很快又進行了第二次1.0842的測試，當時MACD在超買區域，觸發了賣出的方案#2，結果帶來了10點的小幅下跌。

來自歐元區的PMI數據相當平庸，未能支撐歐元兌美元的進一步增長，但也未顯現重大下跌。儘管有一些正面的報告，但總體形勢仍然混合不清。製造業繼續困難重重，而服務業則僅顯示出適度增長。這使人們對於歐洲中央銀行能否將利率保持在當前水平上心存疑慮。

與此同時，美國聯邦儲備的強硬論調及對更嚴格利率立場的預期支撐著美元。今天，投資者將密切關注宏觀經濟數據，以評估美國經濟狀況及美聯儲可能的政策方向。若PMI數據強於預期，將可能強化對強硬美聯儲的預期，並支持美元。市場亦將關注Bostic和Barr的演講，尋找美聯儲未來利率計劃的線索。如果FOMC成員倡導維持高利率以對抗通膨，這可能進一步加強美元。

就日內策略而言，我將主要依賴方案#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境一：今天，我計劃在匯價達到1.0860水平（圖表上的綠線）時購買歐元，目標是上升至1.0910。在1.0910，我計劃退出市場並反向賣出歐元，目標是30-35點的反轉。今天歐元的增長只有在美聯儲官員發表溫和評論後才有可能。重要！在購買之前，請確保MACD指標在零軸上方並剛開始從零軸上升。

情境二：如果有兩次連續測試1.0815水平，而此時MACD處於超賣區，我也計劃今天購買歐元。這將限制該貨幣對的下跌潛力，並導致市場反轉向上。然後可以預期上升到1.0860和1.0910的相反水準。

賣出信號

情境一：我計劃在匯價達到1.0815水平（圖表上的紅線）後賣出歐元。目標將是1.0766，我計劃在此退出市場並立即反向購買（目標是20-25點的回彈）。如果美聯儲保持強硬態度，對該貨幣對的壓力可能會重現。重要！在賣出之前，請確保MACD在零軸下方並剛開始從零軸下降。

情境二：如果有兩次連續測試1.0860水平，而此時MACD處於超買區，我也計劃今天賣出歐元。這將限制該貨幣對的上升潛力並觸發向下反轉。然後可以預期下降到1.0815和1.0766的相反水準。

Exchange Rates 24.03.2025 analysis

圖表元素說明：

  • 細綠線 – 買入交易工具的進場價格；
  • 粗綠線 – 設定獲利了結或手動鎖定利潤的預估價格，因為進一步超過該水平的增長不太可能；
  • 細紅線 – 賣出交易工具的進場價格；
  • 粗紅線 – 設定獲利了結或手動鎖定利潤的預估價格，因為進一步低於該水平的下跌不太可能；
  • MACD指標 – 進入市場時使用超買和超賣區域非常重要。

重要提示：初學者的外匯交易者在決定進入市場時應該格外謹慎。在重要的基本報告發布之前，最好避免進入市場，以免被價格劇烈波動所傷害。如果您選擇在新聞發布期間交易，請務必設置止損訂單以將損失降至最低。沒有止損措施，您可能很快就會損失全部存款，尤其是如果您不實行資金管理並以大額頭寸進行交易。

請記住，成功的交易需要明確的交易計劃，例如上面所述的計劃。根據當前市場情緒做出即興交易決策對日內交易者來說是一種天生虧損的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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