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25.03.202501:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元:PMI指數和《華爾街日報》內部報告

在美元普遍走弱的情況下,EUR/USD買家試圖延續調整走勢。經過三天的上漲後,美國美元指數短暫從本地高位回落,使得歐元多頭能夠在1.08中段位置發起小幅反彈。然而,PMI數據的發布以及美國媒體的報導迅速抑制了這一上升動力。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

PMI報告對單一貨幣來說,結果是好壞參半——雖不至於災難。德國的製造業PMI仍在收縮區域(低於50點),但從46.5上升至48.3,超過了47.1的預期。然而,德國的服務業PMI則跌入負值:預期指數會上升至52.3,但實際為50.2,這使它接近收縮邊緣,並標誌著自1月份達到52.5的高峰以來連續第二個月下滑。

歐元區的整體PMI反映了德國的趨勢。製造業指數上升至48.7(預測:48.3),連續第三個月增長,而服務業指數則連續第三個月下滑,降至50.4,低於51.2的預期。

三月份的PMI指數透露了什麼信息?由於其好壞參半的特性,數據可能不會支持歐洲央行在四月的會議上減息。製造業顯示出些許改善,但仍在收縮;而服務業有所減弱,但仍處於擴張區域。法國的PMI指數高於50,仍在收縮。這種矛盾的情況對EUR/USD的買家和賣家都產生了壓力。更具體地說,PMI未能支持歐元,調整迅速消退,賣家重新掌控。

在美國交易時段,美元指數因有關唐納德·川普可能推出比最初預期更具針對性的關稅的消息而恢復上行。雖然尚未官方宣布,但《華爾街日報》和彭博社的內部報導被市場認真對待。美元指數再次測試104水平,恢復早前的損失,EUR/USD跌至兩週低點,跌至1.07區域。

根據《華爾街日報》和彭博社, 美國計劃引入比最初建議的進口關稅範圍更小的關稅。據報導,白宮決定把重點放在那些與美國貿易不平衡持續的國家——即從與美國的貿易中獲益更多的國家。消息來源稱,除了幾乎所有G20國家外,該名單可能還包括墨西哥、越南和「其他幾個國家」。

彭博社的內部人士還指出,關稅將會「更具針對性」。據報導,川普政府正在修訂其關稅策略,可能會避免大範圍的行業性關稅。

總的來說,如果報導屬實,白宮已放棄廣泛徵收關稅的計畫,並準備對大約15個國家實施選擇性的關稅,其依據為雙邊貿易平衡。

值得注意的是,以政策急轉彎見稱的川普最終會做決定。然而,這些外洩的消息暗示川普政府內部關於4月2日關稅的辯論仍在繼續。

有趣的是,儘管有這些發展,但交易員大體上忽略了美國製造業PMI的急劇下滑。該指數並未如預期上升至51.9,而是意外跌入收縮區,達到49.8。同時,服務業PMI則跳升至54.3,為自12月以來的最高讀數,在連續兩個月下降後回升。

市場參與者集中於支持美元的基本因素(不利於歐元):關於有針對性關稅的媒體洩露、歐元區PMI數據的矛盾以及強勁的美國服務業PMI。總的來說,這種背景支持EUR/USD進一步走低。

從技術角度看,該貨幣對在四小時圖上位於布林帶的中軌和下軌之間,並且仍低於所有一目均衡表線(包括雲層),顯示短期看跌偏向。首個下跌目標是1.0770(四小時布林帶下軌)。主要目標是1.0730(日線圖布林帶中軌);若跌破該水平,將為EUR/USD的賣家打開測試1.06區域的大門。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Irina Manzenko,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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