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25.03.202509:12 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD:3月25日給初學者的簡單交易提示。昨日外匯交易回顧

歐元交易分析及交易建議

在MACD指標已經顯著跌破零界點時,1.0815水準的測試發生,這限制了該貨幣對的下行潛力。因此,我沒有出售歐元。我也沒有看到其他有效的切入點。

儘管美國經濟顯示出混合信號,但在當天的後半段對美元的需求回升:服務業出現強勁增長,而製造業則面臨下滑。製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)已經跌破50這一關鍵門檻,顯示對經濟的消極展望。這對美國經濟的現狀造成了混合的印象。服務業的穩定增長顯示出強勁的消費需求和整體經濟活動,而製造業的衰退可能預示全球需求減弱、供應鏈中斷或高利率的影響。這兩個行業的分歧也可能反映美國經濟的結構性變化,服務業的主導地位逐漸增強。在接下來的幾個月中,關鍵問題是這一趨勢是否將持續,或者製造業是否會復甦。答案將對美國的增長前景和美元的強勢產生重大影響。

今天,預計將公佈德國的IFO商業景氣指數、現況指數和預期指數。交易者密切關注這些指標,因其是德國經濟健康的重要晴雨表。積極的IFO結果可能提高對德國經濟復甦的信心,並增強歐元的吸引力。另一方面,疲弱的數據可能引發對增長放緩的擔憂,並對歐元造成壓力。

對於日內策略,我將主要聚焦於執行方案#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境#1:我計劃在今天歐元達到1.0822區域時(圖表中的綠色線)進行買入,目標是一個上升至1.0870的波段。在1.0870點,我打算退出市場並反向賣出歐元,預期從進場點開始有30-35點子的移動。只有在數據強勁時,歐元在上半天會有看漲的趨勢。重要:在買入之前,務必確認MACD指標位於零線之上並開始上升。

情境#2:如果1.0795水平出現兩次連續測試且MACD處於超賣區,我也計劃在今天買入歐元。這將限制該貨幣對的下行潛力,並引發上升的反轉。預期反向上升至1.0822和1.0870水平。

賣出信號

情境#1:我計劃在達到1.0795水平(圖表中的紅色線)後賣出歐元。目標將是在1.0745點,在此我計劃退出市場並立即反向買入,預期從這個水平開始有20-25點子的移動。如果數據令人失望,對該貨幣對的賣壓可能回升。重要:在賣出之前,務必確認MACD指標位於零線下方並剛開始下降。

情境#2:如果1.0822水平出現兩次連續測試且MACD處於超買區,我也計劃在今天賣出歐元。這將限制該貨幣對的上升潛力,引發下行的反轉。預期下跌至1.0795和1.0745的反向水平。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

圖表上的內容:

  • 細綠線代表可買入交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗綠線指示可以設置獲利平倉訂單的預期價格水平,或在該價位手動鎖定利潤,因為價格在超過此水平進一步增長的可能性不大。
  • 細紅線代表可賣出交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗紅線指示可以設置獲利平倉訂單的預期價格水平,或在該價位手動鎖定利潤,因為價格在跌破此水平進一步下跌的可能性不大。
  • 進入市場時應使用MACD指標來評估超買和超賣區域。

重要注意事項:

  • 初學者外匯交易者在決定市場進場時應極為謹慎。建議在重要基本面報告發布之前退場,以避免接觸到劇烈的價格波動。如果選擇在新聞發布期間交易,務必使用止損訂單以最大程度減少潛在的損失。沒有止損訂單的交易可能很快就會耗盡您的全部資金,特別是在忽視資金管理原則並進行大額交易的情況下。
  • 記住,成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃,類似於上面所概述的計劃。根據當前市場情況作出的衝動交易決策對於即日交易者來說是一種不成功的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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