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外汇市场分析

25.03.202509:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD：初學交易員在3月25日的簡易交易技巧。昨日外匯交易回顧

英鎊交易分析與交易提示

在測試1.2935這一點位時，MACD指標已經大幅低於零點，這限制了該貨幣對的下行潛力。因此，我並未賣出英鎊。不久後，當MACD處於超賣區時，該點位再次被測試，這使得買入的方案2得以實現。然而，如您在圖表上所見，上漲10點後，該貨幣對又遭遇了賣壓。

昨日英國和美國的PMI數據混合，使市場維持高波動，維持了英鎊對美元繼續上漲的機會。今日唯一值得注意的數據是英國工業聯合會公佈的零售銷售報告，正面的數據可能會引發新的買盤，支撐貨幣對的持續上升趨勢。在地緣政治緊張和通脹壓力驅動的不確定環境下，每一份報告都受到仔細審視。即便是微小的預期偏差，也可能引發外匯市場的波動。儘管英鎊近期表現強勢，但任何負面衝擊可能迅速改變前景。

對於日內策略，我會主要集中於實施方案1和方案2。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境 #1：我計劃今日在1.2940附近（圖表上的綠線）達到入場點時買入英鎊，目標是上升至1.2975（圖表上的較粗綠線）。在1.2975水平附近，我計劃結束多頭頭寸並在相反方向開空，預期有30–35點的波動。只有在強勁的經濟數據出現後，英鎊的看漲前景才合理。重要提示：購買前，確保MACD指標在零線上方並開始上升。

情境 #2：如果在MACD處於超賣區域時，英鎊出現兩次連續測試1.2911水平，我也計劃今日買入。這將限制匯對的下行潛力，並可能導致市場逆轉向上。預期將向1.2940和1.2979的相反水準移動。

賣出信號

情境 #1：我計劃今日在跌破1.2911水平（圖表上的紅線）後賣出英鎊，這可能導致匯對迅速下跌。賣方的主要目標將是1.2874，屆時我計劃結束空頭頭寸並立即在相反方向開多，預期會有20–25點的回撤。最好在較高水平出售英鎊。重要提示：出售前，確保MACD指標在零線下方並剛開始下降。

情境 #2：如果在MACD處於超買區域時，英鎊出現兩次連續測試1.2940水平，我也計劃今日賣出。這將限制匯對的上行潛力，並可能導致逆轉向下。預期將向1.2911和1.2874的相反水準移動。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

圖表上的內容：

  • 細綠線代表可以購買交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗綠線標示預期價格水平，在此可以設置止盈訂單或手動鎖定利潤，因為價格進一步超過此水平上漲的可能性不大。
  • 細紅線代表可以賣出交易工具的進場價格。
  • 粗紅線標示預期價格水平，在此可以設置止盈訂單或手動鎖定利潤，因為價格進一步低於此水平下跌的可能性不大。
  • MACD 指標應用於進入市場時評估超買和超賣區域。

重要提示：

  • 初學者外匯交易者在進行市場進場決策時應格外謹慎。建議在重要基本面報告發佈之前避免進入市場，以免遭受劇烈的價格波動。如果選擇在新聞發布期間進行交易，務必使用止損訂單來將潛在損失降至最低。沒有止損訂單的交易可能會很快耗盡您的全部存款，尤其是在忽視資金管理原則並進行高額交易時。
  • 請記住，成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計畫，如上文所述的計畫。根據當前市場情況做出衝動交易決策是日內交易者失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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