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25.03.202519:04 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元。3月25日。無聊的一週即將到來

週一，歐元兌美元（EUR/USD) 雙向從200.0%斐波那契回撤水平1.0857反彈，轉向有利於美元，並下跌至支撐區1.0781–1.0797。今天從這個區域反彈將對歐元有利，並觸發新的上升趨勢，朝1.0857水平移動。若在此區域下方穩固盤整，則增加進一步下跌的可能性，朝向下一個斐波那契161.8%的水平1.0734。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

小時圖上的波浪情況發生了變化。最後完成的上升波段僅略微超過了前一個高點，而最近的下降波段則勉強突破了前一個低點。因此，目前的波浪模式仍然指向看漲趨勢，但隨著多頭似乎已經耗盡動力，可能很快就會開始逆轉。幾周以來，唐納德·川普的關稅給美元帶來了巨大壓力，但這種情況不會永遠持續下去。

週一，新聞背景引起了交易者的興趣，但大多數報告未能回答關鍵問題：如何處理歐元和美元？PMI數據通常可以暗示未來的經濟趨勢，但昨天並不是這樣的時候。德國和歐元區的製造業PMI有所改善，但服務業PMI下降。總體而言，很難說歐洲經濟是在復甦還是在放緩。在我看來，它既不在復甦也不在放緩——而是在停滯。

本週重要事件較少，因此交易者可能會將焦點轉向下週，當時新聞背景會變得更重要。在四月初，我們將知道唐納德·川普計劃對全球貿易夥伴施加哪些關稅，這可能對看跌頭寸產生極大的負面影響。歷史上，市場對關稅的引入反應非常負面。目前，美元暫時享有短暫的喘息。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

在4小時圖上，該貨幣對受另一個「看跌」背離的影響而轉向有利於美元，並且收盤價低於1.0818的61.8%斐波那契水平。因此，可以預期將進一步下跌至下一個50.0%回撤水平1.0696。歐元仍有下跌空間，因為價格仍在上升趨勢通道之上。目前，沒有任何指標形成新的背離。

交易者承諾報告 (COT) 報告：

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

在過去的一週中，專業交易者開啟了305個新的多頭頭寸，並平倉了46,030個空頭頭寸。"非商業"組的情緒再次轉向看漲——這要歸功於唐納德·特朗普。投機者持有的多頭頭寸總數現在是189,000，而空頭頭寸已經減少到129,000。

持續20週以來，大型交易商一直在拋售歐元，但如今他們已連續六週減少空頭頭寸並增加多頭頭寸。歐洲央行與美聯儲之間的貨幣政策分歧，由於利率差異仍然偏向美國美元。然而，唐納德·特朗普的政策如今成為交易者更強大的因素，因為這可能促使美聯儲轉向更溫和的立場，並可能引發美國經濟的衰退。

美國與歐元區的新聞日歷：

歐元區 – 德國Ifo商業景氣指數 (09:00 全球標準時間) 美國 – 新房銷售 (14:00 全球標準時間)

3月25日的經濟日曆包括兩個次級發佈。預計週二的新聞背景對市場情緒的影響將非常微弱。

歐元/美元預測與交易者建議：

在小時圖上從1.0944和1.0857反彈後可以賣出該貨幣對，目標為1.0857和1.0797——所有這些都已達到。新的空頭頭寸將在確認跌破1.0781–1.0797區域後可能開設，目標位為1.0734和1.0622。當匯率從小時圖的1.0781–1.0797區域反彈時，可考慮買入，目標位為1.0857。

Fibonacci網格在小時圖上從1.0529–1.0213繪製，且在4小時圖上從1.1214–1.0179繪製。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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