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25.03.202519:09 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 美元/日元。分析與預測

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

美元/日元匯率正從週二早些時候觸及的151.00心理關口回落,但這次回調並未伴隨顯著的賣壓。儘管日本的採購經理人指數(PMI)數據令人失望,但日本央行的鷹派言論吸引了買家的注意。

根據日本央行1月會議的紀要,如果經濟前景持續向好,仍有進一步收緊貨幣政策的必要。 日本央行行長植田和男強調,目標是實現價格穩定,如果通脹達到2%的目標,央行已做好調整政策的準備。這令市場預期工資上漲將影響通脹,支持加息的理據。

然而,有關美國貿易關稅減少破壞性影響、俄烏達成和平協議以及中國刺激措施的希望,使交易員對於大幅押注日元走強持謹慎態度。 與此同時,美國正面的PMI數據支撐了美元的強勢,這同時有助於保持美元/日元匯率的高位。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

從技術角度來看,突破150.00水平——該水平與4小時圖的200期簡單移動平均線(SMA)重合——被視為一個重要的看漲信號。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

日線圖上的相對強弱指數(RSI)呈現正值,支持進一步上漲的展望。回調可能被視為買入機會,並受到150.00心理支撐的限制。然而,跌破該水平可能會打開通往支撐區間149.30–149.25及更低的路徑。如果未能守住148.60的水平,短期偏向將轉向空頭。

如果多頭交易者能持穩在151.00上方,這或可導致對月高附近151.30進行測試,接著向靠近151.75的200日SMA移動,然後到達152.00的心理關口。漲勢可能延伸至152.30的中間阻力,最終觸及153.00大關。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
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