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25.03.202519:13 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD：3月25日美國交易時段的交易計劃（上午交易回顧）

在我的早間預測中，我強調了1.0779水平，並計劃基於此做出交易決策。讓我們看一下5分鐘圖表，檢視那裡發生了什麼事情。在該水平的下跌和假突破形態提供了一個良好的入場點，導致漲幅超過40點。當日下半程的技術形態並未改變。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

開立 EURUSD 多頭頭寸：

顯然，德國公布的良好 IFO 數據有助於提振歐元需求，並暫止 EUR/USD 貨幣對的向下調整。然而，情況可能會在下半日發生變化，因為我們正等待重要的美國數據出爐。美國的消費者信心和新屋銷售的強勁數據可能會支持美元，導致貨幣對下跌。否則，EUR/USD 可能會繼續上升。如果數據被忽視，焦點將轉向 FOMC 成員 John Williams 的講話。

若出現下跌，只有在 1.0780 支撐區域出現虛假突破，才會發出新的 EUR/USD 購買信號，以期建立一個看漲市場，目標是重新測試目前交易區間 1.0818 的位置。突破並重新測試這一區間將確認一個合適的買入進場，目標為 1.0856。最遠的目標將是 1.0892，那裡是我計劃獲利了結的位置。

如果 EUR/USD 下跌並在 1.0780 附近沒有動靜—這更有可能—則貨幣對可能繼續調整。在這種情況下，賣方可能會將其拖至 1.0746。只有在那裡出現虛假突破後，我才會考慮購買歐元。我計劃在 1.0715 反彈時開立多頭頭寸，目標為 30-35 點的日內調整。

開立 EURUSD 空頭頭寸：

賣方在 1.0818 附近出現，但尚未形成全面下跌。如果即使在公佈數據後亦沒有看到任何反應，那麼最好將空頭頭寸延遲到測試 1.0856。只有在那裡出現虛假突破，才能進入空頭頭寸，目標調整至位於移動平均線的 1.0818。突破並鞏固在這個區域下方將提供另一個有效的賣出機會，並往 1.0780 發展。最遠的目標將是 1.0746，那裡是我計劃獲利了結的地點。

如果 EUR/USD 在下半日上升而賣方無法在 1.0856 附近行動，買方可能會將貨幣對推高。在這種情況下，我將暫緩空頭頭寸，直到測試下一個阻力位 1.0892。我將只在未能鞏固的情況下從那裡賣出。如果從那個水平也沒有向下運動，我將考慮在 1.0923 反彈時的空頭頭寸，目標為 30-35 點的向下調整。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

截至3月18日的COT報告（交易者持倉報告）：

報告顯示多頭持倉增加，而空頭持倉則大幅減少。越來越多的交易者願意買進歐元，而賣家則繼續退出市場。歐洲央行對降息持謹慎態度，而美國疲弱的數據迫使聯邦儲備局採取更寬鬆的立場，這些都是市場動態發生重大變化的原因。

COT報告顯示，非商業多頭持倉增加了305，達到188,952；而空頭持倉減少了46,030，降至129,527。因此，多頭和空頭持倉的淨差距減少了24,714。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

指標信號：

移動平均線：交易圍繞30日和50日移動平均線進行，顯示市場橫向波動。

注意：作者考慮的是H1小時圖上的移動平均線週期和價格，可能與D1日圖的標準定義有所不同。

布林帶：如有下跌，指標的下軌帶靠近1.0780將充當支撐。

指標描述：

  • 移動平均線 (MA)：通過平滑波動性和噪音來辨別當前趨勢。週期 - 50（圖中顯示為黃色）；週期 - 30（圖中顯示為綠色）。
  • MACD (移動平均收斂/發散)：快速EMA - 週期12；慢速EMA - 週期26；信號SMA - 週期9。
  • 布林帶：週期 - 20。
  • 非商業交易者：如個人交易者、對沖基金及大型機構等利用期貨市場進行投機交易的投機者。
  • 非商業多頭持倉：非商業交易者持有的所有多頭持倉總數。
  • 非商業空頭持倉：非商業交易者持有的所有空頭持倉總數。
  • 非商業淨持倉頭寸：非商業持倉的空頭與多頭持倉之間的差額。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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