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外汇市场分析

25.03.202519:20 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元：3月25日美國交易時段初學者簡單交易技巧

歐元貿易分析及建議

當MACD指標已大幅低於零軸時，測試了1.0795的水準，這限制了該貨幣對的下行空間。出於這個原因，我沒有賣出歐元。隨後第二次測試1.0795時，MACD處於超賣區域，觸發了買入的第二種情景，但快速上漲並沒有出現。

今天發布的IFO商業氣候指數超出了分析師的預期，儘管並非所有組成部分都顯示出強勢的結果。然而，交易者將此視為歐元區最大經濟體衰退結束的可能信號，對歐元的新興興趣幫助阻止了EUR/USD的下跌。但僅僅依賴一個有利的IFO報告來斷定長期趨勢的逆轉為時尚早。從技術角度來看，EUR/USD似乎已找到底部，目前的關鍵問題是，近期能否恢復上漲動能。

如果美國消費者信心指數和新房銷售數據低於預期，那麼EUR/USD有可能恢復上升趨勢。然而，如果實際數據優於預測或保持中立，目前EUR/USD的上升趨勢可能很快失去動力。

至於日內策略，我將更多依賴於執行第一和第二方案。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境 #1：今天可以在價格水平約 1.0835（圖表上的綠色線）買入歐元，目標是上升至 1.0870。在 1.0870，我計劃離場，並反向賣出歐元，預期會有 30–35 點的回撤。今天歐元的上漲只有在美國數據疲弱和聯邦公開市場委員會成員發表鴿派言論後才有可能。重要提示！在購買之前，確保 MACD 指標在零線以上並剛開始從中上升。

情境 #2：如果 1.0812 水平出現兩次連續測試，且 MACD 位於超賣區，我也計劃今天買入歐元。這將限制貨幣對的下跌潛力並引發反彈。預期上升到反向的 1.0835 和 1.0870 水平。

賣出信號

情境 #1：價格達到 1.0812（圖表上的紅色線）之後，我計劃賣出歐元。目標將是 1.0781，我計劃在此退出市場，並立即反向買入（預期會有 20–25 點的反彈）。如果聯邦儲備採取鷹派立場，賣盤壓力可能會回歸。重要提示！在賣出之前，確保 MACD 指標在零標記以下並剛開始從中下滑。

情境 #2：如果 1.0835 水平出現兩次連續測試且 MACD 位於超買區，我也計劃今天賣出歐元。這將限制上升潛力並引發反轉。預期會下降到反向的 1.0812 和 1.0781 水平。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

圖表關鍵：

  • 細綠線 – 買入該交易工具的進場價格
  • 粗綠線 – 預期設定獲利了結或手動鎖定利潤的水平，因為此水平之上的進一步增長不太可能
  • 細紅線 – 賣出該交易工具的進場價格
  • 粗紅線 – 預期設定獲利了結或手動鎖定利潤的水平，因為此水平之下的進一步下跌不太可能
  • MACD指標：進入市場時，需參考超買和超賣區域

重要提示：外匯市場的新手交易者在決定進行交易時應非常謹慎。在主要基本報告發布之前，最好暫時退出市場，以免遭受劇烈的價格波動。如果您決定在新聞發布期間進行交易，一定要設置止損訂單以將損失降至最低。沒有止損的話，您可能會迅速失去全部存款，尤其是在忽視資金管理並大額交易時。

請記住：要成功交易，您必須有一個明確的交易計劃，就像上面展示的那樣。根據當前市場情況做出衝動決策，對日內交易者來說，是一種天生的失敗策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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