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外汇市场分析

25.03.202519:26 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD：3月25日（美國交易時段）初學者的簡單交易提示

英鎊交易解析及交易技巧

當MACD指標已經大幅下移到零點以下時，測試了1.2911的水平，這限制了該貨幣對的下行潛力。因此，我沒有賣出英鎊。第二次測試該水平時，MACD正在從超賣區恢復，這啟動了購買的情境#2，推動該貨幣對升向1.2940的目標水平。

英國缺乏顯著數據的情況再次有利於英鎊，使其從週低水位反彈。投資者似乎將新聞的缺席解讀為正面信號，避免了對可能反映在數據中的潛在經濟問題的猜測。這使得英鎊兌美元走強。

下半天的交易同樣充滿事件。美國消費者信心和新屋銷售的正面數據發布，可能會重新引發對美元的需求。美元走強可能會壓低GBP/USD匯率，將其推低。投資者可能會將這些報告視作美國經濟穩定的跡象，從而使以美元計價的資產更具吸引力。反之，如果實際數據低於預期或變化不大，那麼GBP/USD當前的上升趨勢可能會持續。

至於日內策略，我將更依賴於情境#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境#1：我計劃在匯價到達約 1.2960（圖表上的綠線）時買入英鎊，目標上升至 1.3000 水平（圖表上的粗綠線）。在 1.3000 附近，我計劃平掉多頭倉位並開立空頭倉位，目標是從該水平回撤 30-35 點。在目前的上升趨勢中，預期今天英鎊應該能夠反彈。重要提示！在買入之前，確保 MACD 指標在零線之上並剛開始自該點上升。

情境#2：如果 MACD 處於超賣區域，我也計劃在 1.2938 水平兩次連續測試時買入英鎊。這將限制匯價的下行潛力並導致上行反轉，預期將上升至 1.2960 和 1.3000 的相反水平。

賣出信號

情境#1：我計劃當 1.2938 水平被突破（圖表上的紅線）後立即賣出英鎊，這應引發匯價的快速下跌。賣家的主要目標將是 1.2904 水平，我計劃在該水平平掉空頭並立即開立多頭倉位（預期反彈 20-25 點）。若有強勁的美國數據發布，賣家將會更加活躍。重要提示！在賣出之前，確保 MACD 指標在零線之下並剛開始自該點下降。

情境#2：我也計劃在 MACD 處於超買區域時，在 1.2960 水平兩次連續測試時賣出英鎊。這將限制匯價的上行潛力並導致下行反轉，預期將下跌至 1.2938 和 1.2904 的相反水平。

Exchange Rates 25.03.2025 analysis

圖表指南：

  • 細綠線 – 買入交易工具的入場價格
  • 粗綠線 – 預估可以設定止盈或手動鎖定利潤的價格，因為超過此水平的進一步增長可能性不大
  • 細紅線 – 賣出交易工具的入場價格
  • 粗紅線 – 預估可以設定止盈或手動鎖定利潤的價格，因為低於此水平的進一步下跌可能性不大
  • MACD 指標：進入市場時，密切關注超買和超賣區域非常重要

重要提示：外匯市場的新手交易者在決定進行交易時必須非常謹慎。在重要的基本面報告發布前，最好保持觀望以避免陷入劇烈的價格波動。如果你選擇在新聞發布時交易，務必設置止損以減少損失。沒有止損，你可能很快會損失全部資金，特別是在忽視資金管理並以大量交易時。

請記住：成功的交易需要清晰的交易計劃——就像上述例子。一味根據當前市場情況做出即興交易決策對於日內交易者來說是一種失敗的方法。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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