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26.03.202507:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 3月26日需要注意什麼?新手指南:基礎事件剖析

宏觀經濟報告分析:

Exchange Rates 26.03.2025 analysis

週三的宏觀經濟事件很少,只有一份重要的報告被預期。英國將發布看似重要的通脹報告。通脹仍然是英格蘭銀行在確定其貨幣政策參數時的一個關鍵因素。然而,今天僅發布二月的第二次估算,而第二次估算很少與第一次有顯著差異。正如安德魯·貝利上週所指出的,英國的通脹仍在上升,甚至可能進一步增加。因此,無論實際的消費者物價指數(CPI)數字如何,根據此報告預期英鎊大幅下跌的理由不多。在美國,今天將發布耐用品訂單報告。由於這類商品相對昂貴,該報告可以洞察美國消費者進行高額購買的意願。

基本事件分析:

Exchange Rates 26.03.2025 analysis

週二的基本事件之一是聯邦儲備委員會官員 Neel Kashkari 和 Alberto Musalem 的演講。然而,聯準會的上次會議剛在上週舉行,Jerome Powell 已明確說明了央行接下來幾個月的立場。因此,Kashkari 或 Musalem 可能不會提供新的信息。不論如何,目前聯準會的貨幣政策對交易者的影響微乎其微。他們繼續專注於特朗普及其貿易政策。

總結:

在本週的第三個交易日,兩個貨幣對可能會繼續近幾週累積的下跌趨勢。兩者都位於其上升通道以下,而聯準會的立場允許美元奪回部分不合理失去的地位。當然,沒有人知道特朗普何時會宣布新的貿易關稅,或它們會是什麼樣子,但即使是這一因素也不能無休止地導致美元下跌。目前,英鎊更傾向於平盤交易,而不是向下修正。

交易系統的關鍵規則:

  1. 信號強度:信號形成的時間越短(反彈或突破),信號越強。
  2. 錯誤信號:如果在某一水平附近的兩次或以上交易產生錯誤信號,則應忽略該水平的後續信號。
  3. 平盤市場:在平盤條件下,貨幣對可能會產生許多錯誤信號或根本不產生信號。最好在市場出現平盤跡象時停止交易。
  4. 交易時間:從歐洲交易時段開始至美國交易時段中期之間開盤交易,然後手動平倉所有交易。
  5. MACD 信號:在小時圖表上,只在良好波動性和趨勢線或趨勢通道確認的明顯趨勢期間交易 MACD 信號。
  6. 接近水平:如果兩個水平太接近(相距 5–20 點差),則將它們視為支撐或阻力區域。
  7. 止損:當價格向預期方向移動 15–20 點差時,設置止損至盈虧平衡點。

圖表的關鍵元素:

支撐和阻力水平:這些是開盤或平倉位置的目標水平,還可以作為設置獲利點的參考。

紅線:表明當前趨勢和建議交易方向的通道或趨勢線。

MACD 指標 (14,22,3):作為輔助交易信號來源的直方圖和信號線。

重要的演講和報告,經常出現在新聞日曆中,可能會顯著影響貨幣對的走勢。因此,在發布時,建議謹慎交易或考慮退出市場,以避免潛在的價格逆轉。

外匯市場的初學者應了解,並非每筆交易都會盈利。制定明確的交易策略並練習有效的資金管理對於在交易中取得長期成功至關重要。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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