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26.03.202518:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 英鎊/美元：3月26日美國交易時段的交易計劃（上午交易回顧）

在我上午的預測中，我強調了1.2926這一水平並據此計劃進行交易決策。讓我們來看看5分鐘走勢圖並分析發生了什麼情況。當匯價突破並回測1.2946時，提供了一個賣出英鎊的入場點，這與美國通脹下降的消息一起，引發了該貨幣對的大幅拋售。對於下半天的技術展望已經進行了修訂。

Exchange Rates 26.03.2025 analysis

開立英鎊/美元多頭頭寸：

英國的通脹放緩，引發了英鎊的急劇下跌。統計報告顯示消費者物價增長的減弱，推動了市場對英國央行可能放寬貨幣政策的猜測。在此背景下，交易者紛紛拋售英鎊，導致該貨幣對暴跌。

在下半日，我們預期美國的耐用品訂單數據和美聯儲委員Neel Kashkari和Alberto Musalem的講話。若市場對數據和講話的反應是看跌的，只有在1.2886水準的假突破會提供一個良好的多頭入場點，目標是回升至1.2916的阻力位。突破並從上方重新測試這一範圍將提供另一個多頭入場信號，有望達到1.2941。最終目標將是1.2964區域，在此我計畫獲利了結。

如果英鎊/美元下跌，在下半日買家在1.2886毫無動靜，英鎊的壓力可能會回升，使該貨幣對陷入橫盤通道。在這種情況下，1.2861水準的假突破將是開立多頭頭寸的合適條件。我還計畫從1.2835支撐水平反彈買入英鎊/美元，爭取30–35點的盤中修正。

開立英鎊/美元空頭頭寸：

數據公布後，英鎊大幅下跌，現在空頭需要守住最近的阻力位1.2916來維持下跌趨勢。如果報告反應是樂觀的，只有在1.2916水準的假突破會提供賣出入場點，目標指向上午形成的新支撐位1.2886。下面的突破並重新測試此範圍將觸發止損並打開通向1.2861的通道，這標誌著顯著的修正。最終目標將是1.2835區域，我計畫在此獲利了結。測試這一水準可能會暫停看漲的回升。

如果在下半日英鎊需求回升，而空頭未能在1.2916上立足，最好延遲賣出，直到測試1.2941的阻力水準。這一水準位於移動平均線之下，目前偏向賣方。我只會在那裡出現失敗的突破後開立空頭頭寸。如果該水準沒有下行動力，我將尋找1.2964的短期反彈入場，目標是30–35點的盤中回調。

Exchange Rates 26.03.2025 analysis

交易者承諾報告 (COT Report) – 3月18日：

報告顯示，無論是多頭或空頭倉位都有所增加，但多頭倉位的增長明顯更大，這給予買家顯著的優勢。這一點由英鎊/美元的走勢圖證實。在英格蘭銀行的會議後，已經清楚顯示出監管機構對於降息採取了較為漸進的方式，未來甚至可能採取更鷹派的立場。許多人擔心特朗普的關稅政策，這可能會引發英國已經難以控制的通脹飆升。英格蘭銀行當前的立場支持英鎊買家，並有可能繼續支持下去。

最新的COT報告顯示，非商業多頭倉位增加了1,155，達到95,941，而非商業空頭倉位僅增加了946，達到66,539。因此，多頭和空頭倉位之間的差距縮小了17,902。

Exchange Rates 26.03.2025 analysis

指標信號：

移動平均線交易發生在30天和50天移動平均線之下，這表明該貨幣對可能進一步下跌。

注意：作者使用H1（小時）圖表來設定移動平均線週期和價格，這可能與標準的D1（每日）圖表設定不同。

布林帶在下跌的情況下，指標下界約在1.2906將提供支撐。

指標描述：

  • 移動平均線 (MA)：平滑波動和噪聲以識別當前趨勢。
    • 週期50 – 標記為黃色
    • 週期30 – 標記為綠色
  • MACD（移動平均匯聚/分離）：
    • 快速EMA：12
    • 慢速EMA：26
    • 信號線SMA：9
  • 布林帶：週期 – 20
  • 非商業交易員：如散戶交易者、對沖基金和大型機構在期貨市場進行投機活動的投機者。
  • 非商業多頭持倉：非商業交易員持有的總多頭未平倉合約。
  • 非商業空頭持倉：非商業交易員持有的總空頭未平倉合約。
  • 非商業淨持倉：非商業交易員持有的空頭和多頭持倉之間的差額。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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