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26.03.202518:27 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD:3月26日(美國交易時段)初學者的簡單交易技巧

歐元交易分析與指導

在今天的上半日,我提到的水準沒有被測試。

來自歐元區的統計數據缺乏抑制了歐元潛在的增長,導致EUR/USD貨幣對在一個狹窄的範圍內波動。由於宏觀經濟資料有限,市場參與者無法確立明確的方向性走勢——但這情況可能會在今天下半日發生變化。

美國耐用品訂單數據是衡量美國經濟健康狀況的晴雨表。訂單增加反映製造業投資的增強,暗示有經濟增長的潛力。然而,這些數據對美元的影響並不總是直接——通常只有當實際數字顯著超出預測時,才利好美元。否則,即便是稍微欠佳的數據也可能帶來相反的效果。如果公佈的數據令人失望,這可能被解讀為增長放緩的跡象,進而可能對美元產生負面影響。

至於日內策略,我將更多依賴於執行情境#1和情境#2。

Exchange Rates 26.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境#1:我計劃在今日價格達到1.0801(圖表上的綠色線)附近時買入歐元,目標是上漲至1.0836。我計劃在1.0836退出長倉,並在相反方向開立空倉,預計從進場點下跌30-35點。如果今天美國數據疲弱並且聯準會官員發表鴿派言論,這將可能引發歐元的漲勢。重要提醒:在買入之前,請確認MACD指標位於零區上方,並從該位置開始上升。

情境#2:如果1.0778價格水平出現兩次連續測試時,我也計劃買入歐元,此刻MACD指標處於超賣區域。這將限制該貨幣對的下行潛力,並引發向上反轉。可預期將上漲至相反水平的1.0801和1.0836。

賣出信號

情境#1:我計劃在歐元達到1.0778(圖表上的紅色線)後賣出。目標將是1.0752,我計劃在此點退出空倉,並在相反方向立即開立長倉(預計從此水平反彈20-25點)。如果聯準會維持鷹派立場,賣壓可能返回至該貨幣對上。重要提醒:在賣出之前,請確認MACD指標位於零區下方,並剛剛開始下降。

情境#2:如果1.0801出現兩次連續測試並且MACD處於超買區域,我也計劃賣出歐元。這將限制該貨幣對的上行潛力並導致向下反轉。可預期將下降至相反水平的1.0778和1.0752。

圖表示意:

  • 細綠線 – 可以買入的進場價格
  • 粗綠線 – 預設止盈或手動鎖定利潤的大致價格,因為成長超過此水平的可能性不大
  • 細紅線 – 可以賣出的進場價格
  • 粗紅線 – 預設止盈或手動鎖定利潤的大致價格,因為進一步下降超過此水平的可能性不大
  • MACD指標 – 進入市場時,考慮超買和超賣區域是重要的。

重要提醒:

外匯市場的新手交易者在決定進入市場時必須非常謹慎。為避免被急劇的價格波動影響,最好在重要基本面報告發布前避開市場。如果選擇在新聞發布期間進行交易,始終使用止損單以最小化損失。沒有止損,你可能會快速損失整個存款——尤其是如果不適用合理的資金管理並進行大額交易。

請記住:成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃,如上所述的那樣。基於當前市場狀況即興決策的策略對於日內交易者而言是根本上無法成功的。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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