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27.03.202504:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 2023年3月27日EUR/USD交易建議和分析:市場並不著急

歐元/美元五分鐘分析

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

在整個週三,歐元/美元貨幣對的交易僅有微幅損失,而由於價格已經退出上升通道,因此小時圖上的整體趨勢仍然看跌。歐元的下跌幅度較小,經常伴有回調,但同時相對穩定。總體而言,我們認為歐元的下跌是目前最合乎邏輯的發展,因為最近幾週歐元增長過於強勁,這與宏觀經濟和基本面背景不符。值得提醒的是,市場最近幾週僅對「特朗普因素」作出反應,而忽略了其他所有的數據和事件。美元已經大幅下跌,而這種下跌是不合理的。

昨天又是一個市場如何對宏觀經濟數據反應的好例子。當天唯一有意義的報告——耐用品訂單——基本上沒有引發任何反應。報告發布後,美元下跌了22點,而整天的整體波動性仍然非常低。因此,市場對一個相當重要的發布沒有反應。訂單增長0.9%,而收益預測為-1.0%。因此,美元完全有理由至少上漲50點。但這並沒有發生,這如今已經不再令人驚訝。我們目前看到的是一個純粹的技術性、微弱的修正。

昨天在5分鐘時間框架內沒有產生任何交易信號。價格並未接近任何水平或Ichimoku線,因此沒有有效的市場進入點。

持倉報告

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

最新的交易者持倉報告 (COT) 日期為3月18日。如圖所示,非商業交易員的淨頭寸在很長一段時間內保持看漲。空頭僅最近取得了些微優勢,但如今多頭再次掌控局勢。自從特朗普上任以來,空頭頭寸迅速消退,而美元崩潰。我們無法確定美元的下降趨勢是否會持續,而COT數據反映了大玩家的市場情緒,這在當前情況下可能會迅速轉變。

我們仍然看不到任何支持歐元走強的基本因素,但現在有一個強有力的理由支持美元疲軟。這個貨幣對可能會持續糾正幾週或幾個月,但16年的下降趨勢不會快速逆轉。

目前,紅線和藍線再次交叉,這表明一個看漲的趨勢。在最近的報告週中,非商業組的多頭合約數增加了300份,而空頭合約數減少了46,000份。結果,淨持倉增加了45,700份合約。

歐元/美元1小時分析

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

在小時圖上,歐元/美元貨幣對仍然傾向於下行趨勢,我們完全支持這一點。但是,該下跌非常弱且具有修正性。我們認為,由於歐洲中央銀行與美聯儲之間的貨幣政策差異,這一下跌將在中期內重啟不過,目前尚不清楚市場會持續多久僅依靠「特朗普因素」來交易。交易者無視眾多報告和頭條新聞;美元正被每次機會賣出,甚至在有充分理由升值的情況下也無法上漲。

3月27日的交易水平為:1.0340–1.0366、1.0461、1.0524、1.0585、1.0658–1.0669、1.0757、1.0797、1.0823、1.0886、1.0949、1.1006、1.1092,以及Senkou Span B(1.0880)和Kijun-sen(1.0815)線。在識別交易信號時應考慮到Ichimoku指標線可能會在當天變動。當價格向正確方向移動15點時,不要忘記將止損設置為盈虧平衡點,以保護您免受潛在損失以防止虛假信號的產生。

周四,美國將發布關於GDP和失業申請的報告。後者是無關事件,而前者則是第三次(最終)估測。如果GDP數據被向下修正,美元可能再次輕易走弱。然而,即使數據是正面的,它也不太可能上漲,因為市場繼續忽視強勁的美國數據,並等待下周特朗普將公布的新關稅。在歐元區,歐洲央行總裁Christine Lagarde 預定發表演講,預計這將主要是禮儀性的。

圖解說明:

  • 支撐和阻力位(粗紅線):粗紅線表示可能結束運動的地方。請注意,這些線不是交易信號的來源。
  • Kijun-sen和Senkou Span B線:Ichimoku指標線從4小時圖轉移到小時圖上的強線。
  • 極值水平(細紅線):細紅線是先前價格曾經反彈過的地方。這些作為交易信號來源。
  • 黃色線:趨勢線、趨勢通道或任何其他技術形態。
  • COT圖示中的指標1:代表每類交易者的淨頭寸大小。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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