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27.03.202506:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 如何在3月27日交易EUR/USD貨幣對?新手的簡單技巧和交易分析

週三交易分析

歐元兌美元1小時圖表

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

週三,歐元/美元貨幣對繼續緩慢下跌。歐元貶值是可以理解的,儘管交易者仍然忽視大多數宏觀經濟事件。目前市場按照自己的規則進行交易。有時,走勢的方向與宏觀經濟數據的性質一致——有時則不然。例如,昨天就是如此。美國耐用品訂單報告結果遠超預期,美元因此上漲。

我們也想指出,圍繞唐納·川普關稅的歇斯底里情緒正在逐漸消退。川普尚未正式引入關稅,更談不上對經濟產生影響或影響聯邦儲備的貨幣政策——但美元已經下跌。這似乎不合邏輯且不公平。因此,我們預期在進入4月2日之際,美元將增強。

EUR/USD的5分鐘圖表

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

週三在5分鐘時間框架上形成了幾個理想的交易信號。在歐洲和美國交易時段內,價格從1.0797–1.0804區域反彈,之後在週四的夜間測試了1.0726–1.0733區域。結果,一筆交易可能獲得大約40–45點的收益。夜間的買入信號可能大多數交易者沒有及時採取行動,但最終隨著歐元隔夜大幅上漲,這筆交易變得有利可圖。

週四的交易策略:

在每小時時間框架上,歐元/美元對仍然遵循中期下降趨勢,儘管其延續的機會正在減少。由於基本面和宏觀經濟背景依然更多地支持美元而非歐元,我們仍預計會下跌。然而,Donald Trump不斷通過其反覆的關稅設決策和關於應按照美國議程組織世界的聲明推動美元走低。結果,基本面和宏觀經濟仍被政治和地緣政治所掩蓋,我們暫且不會期待美元的強勁上漲。

在週四,由於市場最終停止了因Trump而拋售美元,歐元可能繼續下跌。從技術上講,該貨幣對已經跌破了上升通道。美元已被過度拋售和低估太久且毫無理由。持續的修正看起來很有可能發生。

在5分鐘圖表上需要監測的關鍵水平:1.0433–1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0859–1.0861, 1.0888–1.0896, 1.0940–1.0952, 1.1011, 1.1048。週四在歐元區沒有重要事件安排。在美國,一份相當重要的報告,即Q4 GDP的最終估算值將會發布。由於這是最終數據讀數,仍可能讓市場措手不及。

核心交易系統規則:

  1. 信號強度:形成信號的時間(反彈或突破)越短,信號越強。
  2. 虛假信號:如果在某一水平附近的兩筆或更多交易產生了虛假信號,應忽略該水平之後的信號。
  3. 平坦市場:在平坦狀態下,貨幣對可能產生很多虛假信號或完全沒有信號。最好在平坦市場的第一個跡象出現時停止交易。
  4. 交易時間:在歐洲時段開始和美國時段中期之間開倉,然後手動平倉所有倉位。
  5. MACD信號:在每小時時間框架上,僅在好的波動性期間以及趨勢線或趨勢通道確認的明確趨勢下交易MACD信號。
  6. 靠近的水平:如果兩個水平太近(相距5–20點),將其視作支撐或阻力區域。
  7. 止損:在價格朝預期方向運動15點後將止損設置為保本。

關鍵圖表元素:

支撐和阻力水平:這些是開倉或平倉的目標水平,也可以用作設置止盈訂單的點位。

紅色線條:渠道或趨勢線,指出當前趨勢和理想的交易方向。

MACD指標(14,22,3):柱狀圖和信號線用作輔助交易信號的來源。

重要事件和報告:可在經濟日曆中找到,可能對價格波動產生重大影響。要小心或在其發布期間退出市場,以避免劇烈的反轉。

外匯交易新手應記住,並非每筆交易都會盈利。制定清晰的策略和實踐適當的資金管理對於長期交易成功至關重要。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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