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外汇市场分析

27.03.202509:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD：3月27日新手交易者的簡單交易提示。昨日外匯交易回顧

歐元交易分析及交易提示

當MACD指標開始從零線下行時，價格在1.0778進行測試，證實這是賣出的有效切入點。因此，該貨幣對下跌了30個基點。

強勁的美國數據和有關美國貿易關稅的新消息提振了美元。昨天，唐納德·特朗普簽署了一項行政命令，對汽車進口徵收25%的關稅，進一步加劇了貿易戰。雖然這一決策並未讓市場感到意外，但它加劇了對全球經濟衰退的擔憂。在這種背景下，交易者傾向於轉向美元，因為美元在不確定時期被視為較安全的資產。反之，歐元因市場擔心貿易限制可能對歐洲經濟、尤其是汽車行業造成更大的損害，因而承受了壓力。

今天，焦點將轉向歐元區M3貨幣供應量和私營部門貸款量的新數據。經濟學家和投資者密切關注這些指標，因它們是該地區經濟健康狀況的晴雨表。私營部門貸款的走勢尤其重要。放貸下降通常顯示出商業活動和消費需求的減少。隨著企業和家庭對借貸變得更加謹慎，經濟增長可能放緩，從而在短期內削弱歐元。

交易者還將密切關注歐洲央行行長Christine Lagarde的講話。她對通脹前景和未來貨幣政策措施的評論可能會對歐元和市場整體情緒產生重大影響。任何進一步貨幣寬鬆的暗示，尤其是在最近歐元區價格壓力放緩跡象之後，可能會引發額外的歐元兌美元的賣壓。

對於日內策略，我將主要關注情景#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

方案 #1：今天在1.0795 水平（圖表中的綠線）買入歐元，目標為1.0827。在1.0827，我計劃退出多頭倉位並開立空頭倉位，回撤約30-35點。重要提示：在買入之前，確保MACD指標在零線之上並開始上升。

方案 #2：如果價格連續兩次測試1.0772水平，而MACD處於超賣區域時買入歐元。此舉可以限制該貨幣對的下行潛力，並暗示市場將向上反轉。預期上升至1.0795和1.0827。

賣出信號

方案 #1：在價格達到1.0772（圖表中的紅線）後賣出歐元，目標為1.0740。我計劃在1.0740退出空頭倉位並進行多頭倉位，反彈20-25點。重要提示：在賣出之前，確保MACD指標在零線之下並開始下降。

方案 #2：如果價格連續兩次測試1.0795水平，而MACD處於超買區域，則賣出歐元。這將限制上行的潛力，可能引發市場反轉向下。預期下降至1.0772和1.0740。

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

圖表上的內容：

  • 細綠線代表可以買入交易工具的進場價。
  • 粗綠線表示預期的價格水準，可以在此放置獲利平倉單，或者手動鎖定利潤，因為價格進一步突破此水準的可能性不大。
  • 細紅線代表可以賣出交易工具的進場價。
  • 粗紅線表示預期的價格水準，可以在此放置獲利平倉單，或者手動鎖定利潤，因為價格進一步跌破此水準的可能性不大。
  • 進入市場時，應使用MACD指標來評估超買和超賣區域。

重要注意事項：

  • 初學者在進行外匯交易時應極為謹慎。建議在重要基本報告發佈之前遠離市場，以避免遭受劇烈價格波動的影響。若選擇在新聞發佈期間進行交易，請務必使用止損單以減少可能的損失。不使用止損單交易可能會迅速使您的存款全數虧損，特別是在忽略資金管理原則並使用大量交易時。
  • 切記，成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃，如上述所詳述。根據當前市場情況做出衝動的交易決策是日內交易者失敗的策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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