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27.03.202509:17 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 誰會有任何疑問？特朗普仍然堅持他的經濟路線（英鎊/美元可能下跌，#SPX可能上升）

儘管政治操控不斷，美國總統唐納德·川普始終堅持他的經濟戰略。這一策略旨在打破長期以來的全球經濟模式，該模式是美國主要生產金錢，而世界其他國家提供商品。

毫不意外地，他再次在這一方向上邁出了一步，兌現了之前的承諾：對所有進口汽車，包括乘用車和輕型卡車，實施25%的關稅。此外，零部件的關稅也有所增加。所有這些將於4月2日生效，即所謂的“X時刻”，其他關稅屆時也將生效。他為什麼要這樣做？根據總統的說法，目標是刺激美國國內的製造業。

如我之前所說，川普的主要目標是讓美國迅速走上生產實物商品的路徑，例如目前大批量進口的汽車、電腦、食品等。他明白，維持以往的經濟路線最終會在經濟和政治上摧毀美國。實際上，他正在運用休克療法，堅信儘管最初的影響可能痛苦，但隨後將出現真實的改進。他的目標是將貿易平衡轉向美國，並不再是中國、歐盟、加拿大、墨西哥以及其他目前最大受益於向美國出口的國家。

那麼金融市場呢？它們顯示出了一定的震驚跡象，但並未崩盤。一方面，一些人仍希望總統可能軟化立場，減少貿易關稅。另一方面，現實主義者認為，第一波衝擊已經過去。這意味著市場已經將這一決策計入價格，未來只會對實際影響做出反應。即便是最激進的關稅措施，也未必會明顯影響市場。

在全球地緣政治風險（包括烏克蘭危機）中，美國股市繼續從外國資本湧入中獲益。歐洲經濟的疲軟，加上復甦的空談和對建立歐洲軍隊的討論，仍然只是空洞的話語，促使歐洲企業逐漸轉向美國，在此政府的支持顯而易見。我們正在見證資金從歐洲流向美國的過程。

鑑於以上所有，我認為沒有理由預期美國股市會崩盤。是的，在4月2日關稅生效前後可能會有局部的回落，但任何下跌都可能很快被買家吸收，為股指的新一輪增長鋪平道路。

美元會大幅下跌嗎？我表示懷疑。川普已多次表示，他希望美元保持其主導的全球地位。美元的適度下跌可能會有好處，有助於美國公司在全球保持競爭力。我認為ICE美元指數將保持在103.00以上。然而，歐元、英鎊等外匯市場交易的貨幣（除了日元）可能會在持續的貿易戰中受到長期壓力。

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis
Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

今日預測：

#SPX

SPX CFD（標普500期貨）保持短期上升趨勢，甚至顯示出本地看漲反轉的跡象。目前交易位於支撐水平5711.85以上，從技術角度來看，這使得其有持續增長的可能性。如能維持在此水平之上，合約可能會上漲至5812.75。潛在的進入點可能是5727.87。

GBP/USD

該貨幣對目前交易在1.2930水平之下。如果保持在此水平以下，可能會重新下跌，首先可能跌向1.2865，然後是1.2800。潛在的進入點可能在1.2908附近。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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