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外汇市场分析
Fundamental analysis

27.03.202511:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 特朗普施加新的汽車關稅

歐元、英鎊及其他高風險資產昨日均出現下跌，此前有消息傳出總統唐納·川普已簽署一項行政命令，對進口汽車徵收25%的關稅。

這一舉措可能加劇正在進行的貿易戰，該政府將這一策略視為在美國創造更多製造業工作的手段，並為預計於下週公布的更廣泛的關稅開啟序幕。川普在白宮椭圆形办公室表示：「我們將對所有非美國製造的汽車徵收25%的關稅。我們從2.5%的基本稅率開始，也就是我們當前的稅率，然後提高到25%。」「我們將對在我們國家做生意的國家收費，因為他們奪走了我們的工作、我們的財富，以及多年來他們所奪走的很多其他東西。」

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

總統宣布，經過長時間討論的互惠關稅將於4月2日生效，而美國將於次日，即4月3日開始徵收新的汽車關稅。

根據白宮的聲明，關稅不僅適用於整車，還包括主要的汽車零部件，如引擎、變速器、傳動系統零件和電氣系統。零部件關稅不遲於5月3日生效。該清單在未來可能會進一步擴展，涵蓋更多部件。

特朗普總統將這些關稅稱為永久性，並表示他不願意商討豁免。在其聲明上，主要汽車製造商的股票，包括General Motors Co.、Ford Motor Co.和Stellantis NV，在交易結束後大幅下跌。Toyota Motor Corp.也在週四的開盤時出現大幅度下跌。

白宮公告指出，那些符合美墨加協定（USMCA, 在特朗普總統第一任期內與加拿大和墨西哥協商的貿易協定）資格的進口商將被允許對其產品進行認證。執行機制會設計成使25%的關稅只應用於非美國組件的價值。

白宮的工作人員秘書威爾·沙夫（Will Scharf）表示，這些關稅將在現有徵費的基礎上加徵，政府預測這些措施將每年為美國帶來1,000億美元的新收入。

有傳言指出，還在考慮更多特定行業的關稅。特朗普總統威脅要對木材、半導體和藥品徵收關稅。他在週三聲稱：「這將是美國真正的解放日，並將在4月2日，我期待著這一天。」

新的汽車關稅顯然代表了貿易衝突的重大升級，並可能使一些世界上最大的汽車品牌捲入其中，例如日本、德國和韓國，這些國家都是美國重要的貿易夥伴。此舉風險在於中斷依賴於橫跨美國、墨西哥和加拿大的深度整合供應鏈的北美汽車製造商的運營。

外匯市場迅速作出反應。歐元和其他風險資產在消息公佈後大幅下跌，僅在亞洲交易時段觀察到了溫和的反彈。

關於當前歐元/美元的技術圖，買家需專注於重新奪回1.0800的關鍵位置。只有這樣，才有可能瞄準1.0830的測試。在那以後，有可能升向1.0860的水平，但如果缺乏主要市場參與者的支持，實現這一點將非常困難。最遠的上漲目標位於1.0890的高位。如果價格下跌，預計只有接近1.0770時才會出現有意義的買盤。如果該水平無法維持，則可能需要重新測試1.0736的低點，或者將在1.0715考慮建立多頭頭寸。

至於英鎊/美元，英鎊買家必須奪回1.2930的即時阻力位。只有這樣，才有可能以1.2970為目標，儘管突破這一水平可能會非常具有挑戰性。最遠的上升目標位於1.2999。如果該貨幣對下跌，賣方將試圖在1.2890重新獲得控制。此區域成功突破將大大削弱上升動能，並可能將英鎊/美元推向1.2865低點，潛力可至1.2835。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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