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27.03.202511:37 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元——3月27日:美元逐漸走強

週三,歐元/美元貨幣對繼續下跌,僅在1.0734的161.8%斐波那契回檔水平附近止跌。從這一水平反彈使貨幣對回升至1.0781–1.0797的支撐區域,但再次從此區反彈則可能會重新走低,並有可能跌破1.0734。相反地,如果穩守在1.0781–1.0797區域以上,則可能進一步推動歐元走高至200.0%回檔水平的1.0857。

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

小時圖上的波動狀況已經發生變化。最後完成的上升波幾乎沒有突破之前的高點,而最新的下降波則突破了之前的低點。這表明趨勢正在逐漸逆轉,轉向看空方向。過去幾週,Donald Trump的關稅對美元造成了強大壓力,但市場如今對最新一輪關稅僅顯示出微弱的反應。

週三的新聞背景既有趣又重要。美國耐用品訂單報告顯示增長0.9%,高於-1%的預測。在排除運輸的訂單中,上升了0.7%(預期為0.2%),而排除國防的訂單則上升了0.8%(預期為-1.6%)。這三份關鍵報告為空頭提供了強大支撐。此外,昨天宣布Trump對所有進口到美國的汽車徵收25%的關稅。以前,這樣的新聞會引發美元的急劇拋售,但這次的反應卻非常小。這表明市場可能正在對這一因素逐漸脫敏。當然,進一步的關稅預計會在四月初宣布,其嚴重程度可能再度對美元造成壓力。但目前來看,這個話題可能已被市場消化。

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

在4小時圖中,這對貨幣在形成另一個看跌背離後轉向支持美元,並且整合在61.8%的斐波那契回撤位1.0818以下。因此,繼續下跌至50.0%的水平1.0696依然是可能的。由於價格仍在上升趨勢通道之上交易,還有下跌空間。目前沒有指標出現新的背離。

交易商的承諾 (COT) 報告:

Exchange Rates 27.03.2025 analysis

在最新報告週內,專業交易員開設了305個新多頭頭寸並平倉了46,030個空頭頭寸。"非商業"群體的情緒再次變得看漲——這要歸功於唐納德·特朗普。投機者持有的多頭頭寸總數現在為189,000個,而空頭頭寸為129,000個。

20週以來,大型玩家一直在拋售歐元,但在過去的6週內,他們已經在減少空頭並建立多頭。歐洲央行和美聯儲之間貨幣政策的差異仍然有利於美元,因為利率差愈發擴大,但特朗普的貿易政策對於交易員而言是一個更具影響力的因素,可能會給美聯儲施加壓力,令其採取更溫和的立場,甚至觸發美國經濟衰退。

美國和歐元區經濟日曆:

  • 美國 – 第四季度GDP最終值(12:30 UTC)
  • 美國 – 初請失業金人數(12:30 UTC)
  • 歐元區 – 歐洲央行行長拉加德講話(18:05 UTC)

3月27日的經濟日曆包含三個關鍵事件,其中兩個具有相當重要的影響。新聞流可能在當天下半場對市場情緒產生顯著影響。

歐元/美元預測和交易小貼士:

在匯價跌破1.0781–1.0797區間後出現賣出機會,目標為1.0734和1.0622。第一個目標已達到。今天,從1.0781–1.0797區間反彈賣出仍然是一個有效策略,目標保持不變。只有當匯價在小時圖上收於該區間上方時,方可考慮買入,目標1.0857——但目前空頭佔據主導地位。

斐波那契水平在小時圖上從1.0529標繪至1.0213,四小時圖從1.1214標繪至1.0179。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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