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28.03.202500:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 歐元/美元。特朗普再度將美元打入谷底

在唐納德·特朗普最新言論影響下,歐元/美元對正經歷修正,因為他再次重新點燃了關稅戰。有趣的是,美元在總統的言論中最初反應積極——美元指數回到了104.00區域,達到了三週高點。然而,在市場消化了這些信息後,這些發展最終被解釋為不利於美國貨幣。美元指數再次南下逆轉,歐元/美元買家測試了1.08區域(週四高點為1.0822)。市場參與者得出結論,新一輪的關稅戰同樣可能打擊美國經濟,增加衰退的風險。

特朗普宣佈,美國將對所有海外組裝的汽車徵收25%的關稅。據他說,新的關稅將從4月2日開始實施,預計每年將產生1000億美元的收入,同時刺激國內汽車行業的增長。

Exchange Rates 28.03.2025 analysis

根據彭博社調查的經濟學家,受「汽車」關稅影響最嚴重的國家將是德國(去年,美國佔所有德國汽車出口的13%)、日本、韓國、墨西哥以及加拿大。

這些關稅可能會對美國汽車業造成重大損害,因為在美國組裝的車輛中,幾乎60%的汽車零件來自國外。像通用汽車、Stellantis和福特這樣的巨頭將受到特別影響。例如,通用和福特在加拿大和墨西哥組裝了它們的許多車型,根據美國法律,這些都被視為「外國」車輛。因此,當這些汽車越過國境時,將被徵收額外的25%稅。此外,特朗普已宣布,從五月開始,關稅將適用於在美國境外生產的零件。自然,零件成本的增加最終會影響車輛的最終價格。僅墨西哥一國就提供了近40%輸入美國的汽車零件。分析人士已經算出,僅對來自加拿大和墨西哥的零件徵收25%的關稅就會使美國汽車的成本根據車型提高5,000到10,000美元。

同時,美國汽車製造商短期內無法將生產遷回美國——這類變動需要時間——更別提美國勞工的成本比墨西哥勞工高很多。顯然,製造商將把額外成本轉嫁給最終消費者和/或通過減少生產來彌補損失,這將意味著失業。

此外,不應忽視潛在的報復措施。日本首相石破茂已經表示,日本將考慮對美國關稅的「所有可能的反應」。歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩也表達了類似的看法,指出布魯塞爾將研究新關稅的影響,並探索可能的反制措施。

值得回顧的是,在三月份的聯邦儲備會議後,主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾談及因「主要受外貿關稅相關情況影響的不確定性加劇。」他強調聯儲會不會急於在這種情況下降低利率,因「需要更多的明晰。」

如我們所見,美國總統只是讓已經複雜的難題更為困難——在蘊釀中的「報復」關稅背景下,特朗普還宣布了新的汽車進口關稅。

合理地假設,在貿易緊張加劇的情況下,聯儲會不僅在五月而且在六月會採取觀望態度。理論上,聯儲會的這種「耐心」應能支撐美元,削弱鴿派預期。但實際上,我們正目睹相反的情況:美元指數正在積極下跌,因為市場中對美國潛在經濟衰退的擔憂再次抬頭。

Exchange Rates 28.03.2025 analysis

順便一提,亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的GDPNow追蹤器確認了一個悲觀的前景,預測本季度的年增長率為-1.8%(本月初的預測為-2.8%)。這一陰暗的預覽對美元帶來了額外的壓力。儘管美國最後的第四季度GDP數據從2.3%修正至2.4%,市場卻對此視而不見。即使這是正面的公佈,但美元繼續失去地盤,因為2025年前景的不確定性對交易員而言比去年的成就更為重要。

因此,唐納德·特朗普再一次通過宣佈加強關稅政策對美元造成了打擊。市場再次談論另一場貿易對抗的負面影響,美元面臨壓力,讓歐元/美元的買家得以進行修正性反彈。然而,市場仍在消化美國總統的聲明並評估其決策的後果,因此對歐元/美元的持續漲勢言之過早。在這樣的環境中,對歐元/美元採取觀望態度是明智的。市場動盪,而當前的回調更多是情緒上的而非趨勢驅動——現在說逆轉為時過早。而同時,美元尚未找到堅實的支撐。因此,目前保持觀望仍是最安全的選擇。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Irina Manzenko,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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