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28.03.202507:05 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 如何在3月28日交易EUR/USD貨幣對?給新手的簡單提示和交易分析

週四交易分析

EUR/USD 1小時圖

Exchange Rates 28.03.2025 analysis

歐元/美元匯率在週四上升至1.0804水平。毫無疑問,這樣一個意外且相對強勁的歐元上升(或者更準確地說是美元下跌)只能是由一個人引發的——唐納德·川普。過了一夜,他宣布對美國進口商品徵收新關稅,此次針對的是所有國外製造的汽車。Elon Musk正在慶祝,美元再次下跌,因為市場已經多次對美國新總統的貿易政策做出強烈否定的反應。然而,值得注意的是,美元這次的下跌並不算特別劇烈,美國貨幣在接近兩週的時間裡一直在攀升——儘管這是作為修正的一部分。我們已經說過,川普的關稅措施對美國經濟構成短期負面影響。然而,如果經濟沒有收縮,而且沒有宏觀經濟指標顯示惡化,美金不可能在幾個月內下跌10美分。美國經濟在第四季度表現出比預期更強勁的增長。

EUR/USD 5分鐘走勢圖

Exchange Rates 28.03.2025 analysis

週四,在五分鐘時間框架內形成了一個強勁的交易信號和三個中等的信號。僅第一次從1.0733水平的反彈就提供了一個絕佳的盈利機會。不幸的是,該信號是在夜間形成的,因此可能只有少數交易者利用了它。在白天,價格多次從1.0797–1.0804區域反彈並突破該區域一次。但到那時,上行勢頭已經消退。

週五交易策略:

在每小時時間框架內,歐元/美元對仍處於中期下行趨勢,雖然其延續下去的可能性正在減少。由於基本面和宏觀經濟背景仍然更有利於美元而非歐元,我們繼續預期會有下降。然而,特朗普不斷推動美元走弱,通過反覆的關稅決定和組織世界以符合美國利益的聲明。基本面和宏觀經濟因素依然被政治和地緣政治因素所遮蔽,因此我們目前並不預期美元會有強勁增長。

在週五,歐元可能會恢復下降,因為小時時間框架上已開始形成下降趨勢。美元已經超賣並過於劇烈且無理由地貶值,持續修正似乎很可能。

在五分鐘時間框架內,應關注以下水平:1.0433–1.0451、1.0526、1.0596、1.0678、1.0726–1.0733、1.0797–1.0804、1.0859–1.0861、1.0888–1.0896、1.0940–1.0952、1.1011以及1.1048。對於週五,歐元區唯一重要的發布是德國的失業率,而在美國,將關注PCE指數和密歇根大學消費者信心指數。我們認為後者更為重要。

主要交易系統規則:

  1. 信號強度:信號形成所需時間越短(反彈或突破),信號就越強。
  2. 虛假信號:如果某一水平附近的兩次或多次交易產生虛假信號,後續從該水平發出的信號應被忽略。
  3. 盤整市場:在盤整情況下,貨幣對可能生成許多虛假信號或沒有信號。一旦出現盤整跡象最好停止交易。
  4. 交易時間:在歐洲交易時段開始和美國交易時段中間之間開倉,然後手動平倉所有交易。
  5. MACD信號:在每小時時間框架上,僅在波動性良好並有趨勢線或趨勢通道輔助確認的明確趨勢期間交易MACD信號。
  6. 緊密水平:如果兩個水平太接近(5–20點之間),將其視為一個支撐或阻力區域。
  7. 止損:當價格向預期方向移動15點時,將止損設置為盈虧平衡。

關鍵圖表元素:

支撐和阻力水平:這些是開倉或平倉的目標水平,也可以作為設置止盈單的點。

紅線:通道或趨勢線標示當前趨勢和推薦的交易方向。

MACD指標(14,22,3):一個直方圖和信號線,作為輔助交易信號來源。

重要事件和報告:載於經濟日曆,這些可能對價格走勢產生重大影響。在發布期間請謹慎行事或退出市場以避免劇烈反轉。

外匯交易初學者應記住,並非每筆交易都將盈利。制定清晰的策略和練習正確的資金管理是長期交易成功的關鍵。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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