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31.03.202503:21 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 如何在3月31日交易GBP/USD貨幣對？新手簡單技巧與交易分析

星期五交易分析

GBP/USD一小時圖表

Exchange Rates 31.03.2025 analysis

英鎊/美元對在週五呈現橫盤整理，這與歐元/美元對的表現不同，而這相當奇特。過去幾周，英鎊一直在一個無明確界限的水平區間內波動。然而，橫盤整理的走勢卻顯而易見。英鎊既沒有下跌，也沒有上升。有趣的是，儘管歐元在週五並沒有足夠的理由上升，但英鎊卻有。英國第四季度的國內生產總值（GDP）年增率略高於預期，零售銷售超出預期，增長了1.3%。因此，如果有哪一種貨幣應該在週五增值，那就是英鎊。同時值得注意的是，唐納德·特朗普最新的關稅方案對歐洲聯盟的影響遠大於對英國的影響。此外，歐盟面臨美國新關稅的威脅，而倫敦可能有機會與特朗普達成協議。因此，儘管我們長期以來一直認為英鎊的升值是不合邏輯的，但在週五，它有合理的理由上漲，而歐元目前幾乎沒有持有強卡。

英鎊/美元5分鐘圖

Exchange Rates 31.03.2025 analysis

在五分鐘時間框架上，週五沒有形成任何交易信號。近期走勢波動不定，似乎像是「擺動」。橫盤範圍沒有明確的界限，因此反彈交易也未奏效。週五沒有進入市場的理由。

週一交易策略：

在小時圖上，GBP/USD貨幣對早該開始下行趨勢，但特朗普正在竭盡全力阻止這一切。我們仍然預期英鎊中期將下跌至1.1800目標，但目前尚不清楚美元受「特朗普推動」的崩潰多久會結束。一旦該走勢終結，所有時間框架的技術圖形可能會大幅改變，但長期趨勢仍指向南方。英鎊上漲並非毫無原因，但強勁和不理性地上漲。

週一，GBP/USD可能恢復其跌勢，儘管說其可能繼續平盤運行更為準確。從1.2980–1.2993區域的反彈顯示出可能的下跌，但價格走勢依然波動不定，交易者對於宏觀經濟背景不太關注。

在五分鐘框架上，考慮交易的水平為：1.2301, 1.2372–1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502–1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2613, 1.2680–1.2685, 1.2723, 1.2791–1.2798, 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107。週一在英國或美國沒有重大事件安排，因此平盤市場不太可能結束。然而，接下來的一週在美國卻充滿了重要事件。

核心交易系統規則：

  1. 信號強度：形成信號所需的時間越短（反彈或突破），信號越強。
  2. 虛假信號：如果在某水平附近的兩次或多次交易結果為虛假信號，則該水平的後續信號應忽略。
  3. 平盤市場：在平盤條件下，貨幣對可能產生許多虛假信號或完全沒有信號。在出現平盤市場的跡象後最好停止交易。
  4. 交易時間：在歐洲交易時段開始和美國時段中段之間開放交易，然後手動關閉所有交易。
  5. MACD信號：在小時時間框架上，僅在良好波動性和清晰趨勢（由趨勢線或趨勢通道確認）期間交易MACD信號。
  6. 接近水平：如果兩個水平過於接近（相隔5-20點），將其視為一個支撐或阻力區域。
  7. 止損：在價格向所希望方向移動20點後，設置止損至盈虧平衡點。

關鍵圖表元素：

支撐和阻力水平：這些是開倉或平倉的目標水平，也可作為設置止盈訂單的點位。

紅線：顯示當前趨勢及交易首選方向的通道或趨勢線。

MACD指標(14,22,3)：用作交易信號的輔助來源的柱狀圖和信號線。

重要事件和報告：在經濟日曆中可以找到，這些可能會嚴重影響價格走勢。在這些事件及報告發布期間，謹慎行事或退出市場，以避免突如其來的反轉。

外匯交易初學者應記住，不是每筆交易都是有利可圖的。制定明確的策略並實踐正確的資金管理對於長期交易成功至關重要。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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