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外汇市场分析

31.03.202519:55 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EURUSD：3月31日（美國交易時段）初學者的簡單交易技巧

歐元交易細分與交易技巧

當價格測試1.0820時，MACD指標已大幅低於零軸，這限制了該貨幣對的下跌潛力。基於此原因，我沒有在當天上半段賣出歐元，也未進行交易。

德國零售銷售的復甦顯示出消費者支出的韌性，儘管該國仍然面臨通脹壓力。然而，這種積極勢頭不足以為單一貨幣提供長期支撐，在短暫上升後，它回到了開盤水平。

在下半天，除了芝加哥採購經理人指數的公佈外，不預期會有其他顯著的經濟數據，因此理論上可能為歐元的上升奠定基礎。然而，請記住，美國的對等關稅將在兩天內生效，我們很可能會聽到更多來自唐納德·特朗普的評論。因此，僅憑芝加哥採購經理人指數，即使其重要性值得商榷，可能也不足以顯著改變整體市場情緒。

至於日內策略，我將主要專注於執行情景#1和#2。

Exchange Rates 31.03.2025 analysis

買入信號

情境#1：如果歐元價格區域達到1.0834（圖表上的綠線），今天買入歐元，目標是上漲至1.0872。我計劃在1.0872退出市場，然後在該位置反手賣出歐元，預期市場將向相反方向移動30-35點。今天歐元的增長只能在美國數據疲弱和美聯儲官員發表鴿派言論之後才可期待。重要：在購買之前，確保MACD指標在零線之上且剛開始從零線上升。

情境#2：如果1.0810價位有連續兩次測試，我也計劃今天購買歐元，當MACD指標處於超賣區，此舉將限制該匯對的下行潛力並導致市場向上反轉。預期將上漲至對應的1.0834和1.0872水平。

賣出信號

情境#1：在到達1.0810水平（圖表上的紅線）之後，我計劃賣出歐元。目標將是1.0772，我計劃在該點位退出交易，並立即反手買入，預期從該位置移動20-25點。如果特朗普採取強硬立場，對該匯對的壓力可能會回來。重要：在賣出之前，確保MACD指標在零線之下且剛開始從零線下降。

情境#2：如果1.0834價位有連續兩次測試，我也計劃今天賣出歐元，當MACD處於超買區，以此限制匯對的上行潛力並導致下行反轉。預期將下降至對應的1.0810和1.0772水平。

Exchange Rates 31.03.2025 analysis

在圖表上顯示的內容：

  • 細綠線 – 買入交易工具的進場價格；
  • 粗綠線 – 建議設置止盈或手動鎖定利潤的價格，因為在此水平以上的進一步增長不太可能；
  • 細紅線 – 賣出交易工具的進場價格；
  • 粗紅線 – 建議設置止盈或手動鎖定利潤的價格，因為在此水平以下的進一步下跌不太可能；
  • MACD指標 – 進入市場時，重要的是要關注超買和超賣區域。

重要提示：初學者在進入外匯市場時應該非常謹慎。在主要基本面報告發布之前，最好避開市場，以避免劇烈的價格波動。如果你選擇在新聞發布時交易，一定要設置止損單以將潛在的損失降到最低。沒有止損，你的整個存款可能會很快損失殆盡，尤其是在你不使用資金管理和進行大額交易的情況下。

記住：成功的交易需要一個明確的交易計劃，就像上面提出的那樣。基於當前市場狀況做出即興的交易決策對於日內交易者來說是一種固有的失敗策略。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解，而不是给出交易的指示。

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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