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01.04.202511:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD。4月1日。交易者感到困惑且不願冒險

週一,歐元/美元貨幣對繼續其上行走勢,甚至從1.0781–1.0797的支撐區反彈。然而,對於歐元進一步上漲的信心變得越來越困難。根據波浪分析,趨勢已經轉為看跌,這意味著我們應該預期會有下跌。近期的增長僅僅是修正性回撤。因此,我預期會在1.0781–1.0797區域下方形成鞏固,然後進一步下跌至Fibonacci水平的1.0734和1.0622。

Exchange Rates 01.04.2025 analysis

小時圖上的波動模式已經改變。最後完成的上升波幾乎沒有突破前高,而最近的下降波卻跌破了前低。因此,目前的波動顯示出趨勢反轉至空方。上週,Donald Trump 引入了新的關稅,這使得空頭再次後退。Trump 可能會在本週施加更多關稅,給多頭再次進攻的機會。然而,多頭的力量正在日漸削弱。

周一的基本面背景並不支持多頭。德國零售銷售超出預期,但更重要的通脹報告顯示同比下滑至2.2%。雖然這一數字符合預測,但不可忽視的是,通脹正逼近歐洲央行的目標水平。這暗示歐洲央行可能會採取更加寬鬆的貨幣政策,這對歐元來說是個壞消息。特朗普的貿易戰爭在過去幾周支持了多頭,但這不足以維持持續的歐元購買和美元拋售。交易員已經將關稅的消息計入價格,現在需要有其他經濟驅動因素來使這一策略持續可行。目前,並無此類驅動因素。本週將有大量重要統計數據發布,從幾小時後的歐元區通脹數據開始。如果通脹也放緩,空頭將重新發起攻勢。

Exchange Rates 01.04.2025 analysis

在4小時圖上,這對貨幣對出現了輕微的上升走勢,但我預計將會出現有利於美元的新反轉,並進一步下跌至1.0696的50.0%修正水平和1.0575的38.2%水平。儘管目前歐元大幅下跌的可能性不大,但下跌200點仍然是有可能的。今天沒有在任何指標上觀察到背離信號。

交易者承諾(COT)報告:

Exchange Rates 01.04.2025 analysis

在最近的報告週內,專業交易者新開了844個多頭頭寸,並關閉了5,256個空頭頭寸。「非商業」組的情緒再次因Donald Trump的影響而轉為看漲。目前投機者持有的多頭頭寸總數為190,000,而空頭頭寸減少至124,000。

連續二十週以來,大玩家一直在拋售歐元,但在過去的七週中,他們一直在減少空頭頭寸並加建多頭頭寸。儘管歐洲央行和美聯儲的貨幣政策分歧繼續支持美國美元,但特朗普的政策逐漸成為影響交易者的更大因素,因為其可能對美聯儲公開市場委員會的策略施加鴿派壓力,甚至導致美國經濟陷入衰退。

美國和歐元區新聞日曆:

  • 歐元區 – 德國製造業採購經理人指數 (07:55 UTC)
  • 歐元區 – 製造業採購經理人指數 (08:00 UTC)
  • 歐元區 – 消費者物價指數 (09:00 UTC)
  • 歐元區 – 歐洲央行行長Christine Lagarde演說 (12:30 UTC)
  • 美國 – S&P製造業採購經理人指數 (13:45 UTC)
  • 美國 – ISM製造業採購經理人指數 (14:00 UTC)
  • 美國 – JOLTS職位空缺 (14:00 UTC)

在4月1日,經濟日曆包括一整天各個時間段的大量重要事件。基本面情形可能會整天強烈影響市場情緒。

EUR/USD 預測和交易員建議:

今天可以在小時圖上從1.0857水準反彈后賣出該貨幣對,目標為1.0797和1.0734,或者在1.0781–1.0797區域的下方關閉之後賣出。若從1.0781–1.0797區域反彈則可在小時圖上考慮買入,目標為1.0857。

斐波那契水平在小時圖上從1.0529–1.0213畫出,在4小時圖上從1.1214–1.0179畫出。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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