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02.04.202512:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 儘管有關稅的擔憂和經濟疲軟,美國市場仍顯示出韌性

Exchange Rates 02.04.2025 analysis

S&P 500

美國股市在特朗普總統預期的關稅宣佈前暫時停頓。

主要指數以漲跌互見作收:道瓊斯平收,納斯達克上漲0.9%,S&P 500上漲0.4%,在5,500至6,000的區間內交易,收盤接近5,633點。

股市在第二季度開盤時表現不確定。由於投資者在等待今日的關稅宣佈之際消化早期的宏觀經濟數據,主要指數徘徊在前一日收盤水平附近。

市場在開盤鐘響後最初下跌,隨著ISM製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)公佈為49.0點,低於市場共識預測的49.8點和之前的50.3點,賣壓增大。報告指出三月份製造業活動收縮,同時價格連續第二個月急劇上升。

該數據增加了市場對經濟放緩和利潤率壓力的擔憂,貿易相關的不確定性已經加劇這些擔憂。

然而,盤中對於大市值股票的買盤幫助推升了整個市場。蘋果(AAPL $223.19,+$1.06,+0.5%)、微軟(MSFT $382.19,+$6.80,+1.8%)和NVIDIA(NVDA $110.15,+$1.77,+1.6%)——合計近佔S&P 500市值的20%——是在該交易日表現最好的貢獻者。

S&P 500的11個板塊中有8個實現上漲,其中以非必需消費品(+1.1%)、通信服務(+1.0%)和科技(+1.0%)領漲。僅健康保健(-1.8%)和金融(-0.2%)兩個板塊地下跌作收。

美國國債全線走強。10年期國債收益率下降9個基點至4.16%,而2年期收益率跌至3.86%。

年度至今指數表現:

道瓊斯工業平均指數:-1.3%

S&P 500:-4.2%

S&P Midcap 400:-5.9%

羅素2000:-9.8%

納斯達克綜合指數:-9.6%

經濟數據亮點:

S&P Global美國製造業PMI(三月,最終):50.2點(先前49.8點)

ISM製造業PMI(三月):49.0點(市場共識49.8點;之前50.3點)

報告顯示了一個令人擔憂的局面,活動放緩、價格上升和就業減弱的組合可能引起滯脹的擔憂。

JOLTS就業職位空缺(二月):7.568百萬(先前修正為7.762百萬)

建築支出(二月):+0.7%(市場共識+0.4%;先前修正為-0.5%從-0.2%)

私營住宅投資的疲軟集中在多戶型住宅部分。

周三,交易員可能關注以下數據:

東部時間上午7:00:每週MBA抵押貸款申請(先前-2.0%)

東部時間上午8:15:ADP就業變動(三月,市場共識:120,000;先前:77,000)

東部時間上午10:00:工廠訂單(二月,市場共識:+0.4%;先前:+1.7%)

東部時間上午10:30:每週原油庫存(先前:-3.34百萬桶)

能源市場:布倫特原油持穩於每桶74.30美元。儘管美國經濟放緩的跡象顯示,但油價仍受支持,因特朗普總統威脅襲擊伊朗如果不加入核協議重啟談判。德黑蘭已經有效拒絕恢復談判。

結論:美股反彈仍為可能情境,特別是如果特朗普的新關稅方案細節帶來更大明確性。本輪價格水平可能為願意在政策解決前布倉的投資者提供長期進場的吸引點。

額外見解由Mikhail Makarov提供:

https://www.instaforthtex.com/ru/forex_analysis/?x=mmakarov

https://www.instaspot.com/ru/forex_analysis/?x=mmakarov

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Jozef Kovach,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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