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02.04.202509:16 Forex Analysis & Reviews: 市場需要證據

現在懼怕已經太遲了。市場上流傳著謠言,稱白宮可能會實施一個統一的 20% 稅率,而不是互惠關稅——將平均進口稅率推升至自 1930 年代以來的最高水平,並引發全球經濟震盪。然而,S&P 500 指數在美國「解放日」前夕卻出乎意料地保持冷靜和韌性。為什麼?這個年度事件將如何影響這個廣泛的股票指數的反應?

S&P 500 指數保持韌性的原因有幾點。投資者相信唐納德·特朗普不會走得太遠。他不太可能推行一項激進到威脅美國經濟增長的關稅政策。投資者必須看到更多美國GDP增長放緩的跡象才能繼續拋售更廣泛的指數。最終,對進口關稅的更大程度上的清晰將降低不確定性,這對股票有利。

S&P 500 趨勢與預測
Exchange Rates 02.04.2025 analysis

不意外的是,儘管主要銀行和公司降低了對標普500的預測,他們仍然預計該指數在年底前會上升。Yardeni Research 現在預測到2025年底的目標是6000,低於先前的6400;法國興業銀行的預測從6750調整為6400;而高盛將其預期從6200下調至5700。

瑞銀財富管理認為最糟糕的情況會在短期內發生,但隨著談判和其他國家的讓步,預計到年中關稅將逐步回退。這將為標普500在7月至12月間的再度上漲創造理想環境。這種情境看來合理——但是如果其他國家不服從白宮的要求呢?它們可能會將出口轉向其他地方,最終美國則會受到損害。

事實上,不能將特朗普首次對華貿易戰的經驗作為樣板。當時,華盛頓的盟友大多持支持態度,財政刺激在關稅實施前也幫助了美國經濟強勁增長。現在的關鍵差異是貿易政策不確定性的激增,相比八年前大幅上升。

美國貿易政策不確定性指數趨勢
Exchange Rates 02.04.2025 analysis
Exchange Rates 02.04.2025 analysis

根據美國政府的說法,關稅將在宣布的當天生效。S&P 500 指數的反應將主要取決於關稅的規模。只有全面 20% 的徵稅才可能導致該指數出現波動。另一方面,如果實施針對多國的互惠關稅,則可能會引發美國股市反彈,因為投資者會趁低吸納。

從技術角度來看,S&P 500 指數持續在日線圖上形成雙重底形態。若能突破 5670 阻力位,將為在跌至 5500 至 5790 交易區間下限期間開倉的多頭頭寸提供建立的機會。相反地,如果多頭無法突破公平價值阻力,則將顯示出市場的疲弱。

*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaSpot
© 2007-2025
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